工业燃气锅炉使用过程中煤炭使用量预测方法

Forecasting method of coal consumption during usage of industrial gas boiler

为提升工业燃气锅炉使用过程中煤炭使用量预测的准确性与各种燃气锅炉的适用性,设计了一种工业燃气锅炉使用过程中煤炭使用量预测方法。工业燃气锅炉使用过程中,计算时间变化下焦化、烧结等工序实际用煤量的变化规律,构建工业燃气锅炉仿真模型,使用的仿真工具为Simulink。通过HP滤波法分解原始序列,以滤波序列为依据提取稳定成分,获取波动成分序列与长期趋势序列,解决样本末端问题。使用ARMA时间序列法实施工业燃气锅炉使用过程中煤炭使用量的建模预测,建模分为4步:第1步为序列分析,第2步为模型识别,第3步为参数估计,第4步为模型检验。通过实例分析实施设计方法的性能考察,对某钢铁企业的转炉、高炉以及焦炉分别进行煤炭使用量的预测实验。实验结果表明,高炉预测结果的整体平均绝对误差低于1.2%;焦炉预测结果的整体平均绝对误差低于0.7%;2种转炉煤炭使用量预测结果与实际结果的差异也较小,说明设计方法实用性很强。

In order to improve the accuracy of coal consumption prediction in the use of industrial gas-fired boilers and the applicability of various gas-fired boilers,a coal consumption prediction method in the use of industrial gas-fired boilers was designed.In order to simulate the change law of actual coal consumption in coking,sintering and other processes under time change during the use of industrial gas-fired boiler,the industrial gas-fired boiler simulation model is constructed,and the simulation tool is Simulink.Decompose the original sequence by HP filtering method,extract the stable component based on the filtered sequence,obtain the fluctuation component sequence and long-term trend sequence,and solve the problem of sample end.ARMA time series method was used to model and predict the coal consumption in the use of industrial gas-fired boilers.The modeling was divided into four steps:the first step is sequence analysis,the second step is model identification,the third step is parameter estimation,and the fourth step is model test.The performance of the implementation design method was investigated through an example.The prediction experiments of coal consumption were carried out for converter,blast furnace and coke oven in an iron and steel enterprise.The experimental results showed that the overall average absolute error of blast furnace prediction results is less than 1.2%;the overall average absolute error of coke oven prediction results is less than 0.7%;the difference between the predicted coal consumption of the two converters and the actual results is also small,which shows that the design method is very practical.