汇率预期、融资约束与企业对外直接投资决策

Exchange Rate Expectation, Financing Constraint and Firm’s ODI Decision

基于跨国投资、风险决策和异质性企业理论,构建面板定序Logit回归模型,依据1163家中国制造业企业数据,考量汇率预期、融资约束对企业对外直接投资决策的影响。结果表明,人民币升值预期促进企业对外直接投资目的国多元化,人民币波动预期抑制企业对外直接投资目的国多元化。结合前景理论的分析表明,在人民币升值和贬值预期下,企业对外直接投资决策均呈现风险厌恶,但在人民币贬值预期下对汇率更为敏感。企业的融资约束程度、所有权性质通过调节企业对汇率预期的敏感程度,进而影响企业对外直接投资决策。融资约束程度提高会放大企业对汇率预期的敏感性,这一放大效果因企业所有权性质而异。

With theories of international investment,heterogeneous firms and risk aversion,a panel ordered Logit regression model is used to analyze the influence of exchange rate expectation and financing constraint on firms’ODI(outward direct investment)decisions using 1163 Chinese manufacturing firms as an example.The results show that RMB appreciation expectation will lead to the diversification of ODI destination country,while RMB volatility expectation has an adverse effect.The analysis based on the Prospect Theory indicates that,in both RMB appreciation and depreciation expectation conditions,firms’ODI decisions are risk averse.Specifically,firms are more sensitive to the influence of exchange rate with RMB depreciation expectation.Moreover,firms’financing constraint and ownership type influence firms’ODI decisions by moderating their sensitivities to exchange rate.The increase of financing constraint will amplify firms’sensitivities to exchange rate,and this effect varies with firms’ownership type.