2020/21年榨季我国糖料产业发展特点、问题与2021/22年榨季发展趋势

Development Characteristics,Problems of China's Sugar Industry in 2020/21 and Development Trend in 2021/22 Crusing Season

2020/21年榨季国内糖业发展呈“产需双增、进口大增、结转库存高位、价格V型”特征。2021年国内食糖现货价格呈V型走势,整体以上涨为主,2021年11月17日涨到该年内最高价6010元/t,洲际交易所原糖价格以上涨为主,11月18日达到最高位20.69美分/磅,年内最大涨幅33%,为2021/22年榨季开创良好局面。从产业链主体看,糖农收入稳定,糖企连续第二年盈利,然而产业发展不稳,引起国家领导人高度关注。2021/22年榨季预计国际市场供给短缺190万~350万t,国内糖市“产减需稳”,糖业发展还面临生产成本持续攀升导致糖农比较效益不高,甜菜种子仍以进口为主,过量进口冲击国内食糖自给能力,甘蔗机收水平低,蔗区灾害频发等问题。因此,本文提出尽快出台稳定食糖供给能力的产业扶持政策、确保食糖适度进口、加强甜菜种业自主创新研究、运用现代信息技术优化糖业风险保障机制等6条建议。

The development of the sugar industry in the 2020/21 crushing season is characterized by“increase in both the production and the demand,sharp increase in imports,high carryover inventory,and V-shaped price”.In 2021,the spot price of sugar in China showed a V-shaped trend,but the overall price had been rising.On November 17,2021,it reached the peak at 6010 yuan/t of the year.The price of raw sugar on the Intercontinental Exchange had been mainly rising.On November 18,2021,it reached the highest point at 20.69 cent/Ib,with a maximum increase of 33%during the year,which is a good start for the 2021/22 crushing season.From the perspective of the main body of the industry chain,the income of sugar farmers is stable,and sugar companies have made profits for the second consecutive year.However,the development of the industry is unstable,which has aroused great concern of national leaders.In the 2021/22 crushing season,the international market is expected to be in short supply by 1.9 million to 3.5 million tons.But in China’s sugar market,production is reduced,while demand is stable.The development of the sugar industry is also faced with problems such as the low comparative benefits of sugar farmers caused by the continuous rise of production costs,the sugar beet seeds still mainly imported,the excessive import impacts on the domestic sugar self-sufficiency,the low level of sugarcane machine harvest,frequent disasters in sugarcane areas,etc.Therefore,this paper puts forward six suggestions,including introducing industrial support policies to stabilize sugar supply capacity as soon as possible,ensuring moderate import of sugar,strengthening independent innovation research of sugar beet seed industry,and using modern information technology to optimize the sugar industry risk guarantee mechanism.