基于指数分布的车辆行驶试验MTBF估计方法分析

Analysis of MTBF Estimation Method for Vehicle Driving Reliability Test Based on Exponential Distribution

车辆试验场行驶试验是鉴定车辆可靠性的决定性试验,是估计车辆平均故障间隔里程(MTBF)数据并作出接收或拒收判决的依据。本文基于指数分布计算原理分析常用标准公式的适用范围及车辆故障间隔里程的数据特征,确定更合理的近似计算方案;分析不同估计方案的计算精度以确定高精度的使用优先级,避免结果矛盾;同时汇总当前标准覆盖范围,并给出无故障情况下数据计算方法。结果可为车辆行驶可靠性试验结果处理及标准修订提供理论依据。

Driving reliability test in the vehicle proving ground is the decisive test to identify the vehicle reliability and is the basis to estimate the vehicle mean time between failures(MTBF)and make the decision of acceptance or rejection.Based on the calculation principle of exponential distribution,the application scopes of commonly used standards and the data characteristics of vehicle time between failures were analyzed,and then a more reasonable approximate calculation approach was established.To avoid contradiction between calculation results,the priority in method selection is given to the computing accuracy of different methods.In addition,the coverage of current standards was summarized and the calculation method under zero fault condition was given.The proposed method provides theoretical basis for result processing of the vehicle driving reliability test and the revision of the standard.