进口贸易自由化的福利效应:基于中国与“一带一路”沿线双边进口需求弹性的测算

The Welfare Effects of Import Trade Liberalization: Based on the Calculation of Bilateral Import Demand Elasticity Between China and "The Belt and Road" Countries

进口贸易自由化是中国加入WTO后的重要承诺,扩大高质量的进口贸易也是推动中国“双循环”战略的重要举措之一。文章利用中国与“一带一路”沿线120个国家2001~2018年HS-6分位进口贸易数据和关税数据,采用系统GMM方法对双边进口需求弹性和贸易限制指数进行了估算,并对“一带一路”倡议的福利影响进行了评估和情景模拟。研究发现,中国从“一带一路”沿线国家进口的产品平均缺乏弹性,且略低于中国整体进口需求弹性;对“一带一路”沿线国家进口关税的减让显著提高了中国的贸易福利,样本期内无谓损失占GDP的比重下降了67.70%;若中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的进口关税继续降低10%、25%、50%,则中国因贸易限制而产生的无谓损失分别下降约19%、44%和75%。文章识别了影响进口需求弹性的因素,这有利于准确预测关税减让的进口促进效应与福利变化,为贸易自由化政策的制定提供参考依据。

Import trade liberalization is an important commitment when China joined WTO,and expanding High-Quality import trade is one of the important measures to promote our country’s " Dual Circulation" strategy. This paper estimates the elasticity of bilateral import demand and the trade restriction index by using the systematic GMM method,using the HS-6 import trade data and tariff data of China and 120 countries along " The Belt and Road" from 2001 to 2018. We also evaluate and simulate the welfare impact of the " The Belt and Road Initiative". The study finds that China’s imports from the countries along " The Belt and Road" are inelastic on average,and slightly lower than China’s overall import demand elasticity. The reduction of import tariffs on countries along the " The Belt and Road" has significantly improved China’ s import welfare,with the DWL as a percentage of GDP decreased by 67. 70% during the sample period;scenario simulation shows that if import tariffs continue to be reduced by 10%,25% and 50%,China’s DWL will be reduced by 19%,44% and 75% respectively. Finally,this paper identifies the factors that affect the import demand elasticity,which is beneficial to accurately predict the import promotion effect and welfare changes of tariff concessions,and provide a reference for the formulation of trade liberalization policies.