中国与“一带一路”沿线国家水产品贸易潜力研究——基于异质性随机前沿引力模型

A Study on the Trade Potential of Aquatic Products Between China and "the Belt and Road" Countries:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Heterogeneous Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

选取中国与“一带一路”沿线主要水产品出口国2003—2017年的水产品贸易面板数据,运用异质性随机前沿引力模型进行回归分析,研究“一带一路”沿线44个贸易国的水产品贸易效率及其影响因素,并对各国贸易发展潜力进行测算。结果表明:中国对这些国家的水产品出口贸易效率的整体特征为“波动上升”,整体贸易效率水平较低,平均贸易效率值为0.264。中国应重点突破的水产品出口区域为中亚地区及具有较大水产品贸易挖掘潜力的东南亚地区。制度环境、基础设施建设以及贸易组织的加入均会影响水产品的贸易效率及贸易潜力。最后,为充分激发“一带一路”沿线各国的水产品贸易潜能,扩大中国水产品出口市场规模提出相关建设性建议。

This paper uses the heterogeneous stochastic frontier gravity model to calculate the efficiency and trade potential of aquatic products export from China to 44 countries along "the Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2017, and makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors. The results show that the overall efficiency of China’s aquatic product export trade to these countries is characterized by "rising volatility", with an average trade efficiency of 0.264. In the future, the key breakthrough area of China’s aquatic product export is central Asia,and the region with the greatest potential of China’s aquatic product export trade is southeast Asia. Institutional environment, infrastructure construction and trade organizations all affect trade efficiency and trade potential of aquatic products. Finally, this paper puts forward some constructive suggestions for improving the efficiency of aquatic products trade between China and countries along "the Belt and Road".