基于VAR模型的传统产业转型升级影响因素的贡献率分析

Analysis on Contribution Rate of Various Factors that Shape the Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries Based on VAR Model

为了对传统产业转型升级的影响因素进行贡献率分析,以浙江省第三产业为研究对象,使用VAR模型,将劳动力数量、物质资本、技术创新能力、知识产权保护、转型升级水平作为内生变量,得出结论:现阶段浙江省第三产业仍然是劳动密集型产业,转型升级任重而道远,转型升级以劳动力数量和知识产权保护强度的驱动为主,以物质资本投入和技术创新能力的驱动为辅。本研究为定量测评产业转型升级影响因素的贡献率提供了新的视角,也为浙江省制定产业转型升级政策提供了决策依据。

To analyze the contribution rate of various factors that shape the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries,the third industry in Zhejiang Province has been utilized as the research subject to build a VAR model,and labor quantity,material capital,technological innovation capability,intellectual property right protection and the level of transformation and upgrading have been defined as the endogenous variables,which has drawn to a conclusion that the third industry in Zhejiang Province in its current stage remains to be labor-intensive and has yet to be transformed and upgraded,mainly through enhancing the quantity of labor and the level of intellectual property right protection,while boosting the material capital and level of technological innovation capability as supplementary measures.This quantitative study offers a new perspective into the contribution rate of various factors that shape industry transformation and upgrading,serves as the ground for policy-making of industry transformation and upgrading in Zhejiang Province.