林产品网络口碑的临界效应——基于天猫商城数据的断点回归分析

Critical Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth for Forest Product——A Regression Discontinuity Design Based on Tmall Website’s Data

互联网跨界融合创新模式革新了林产品消费方式,促进了林业产业转型升级。文章基于天猫商城中实木床、复合木地板、木门三类林业耐用品的10944个数据,以同行业店铺网络口碑得分的均值作为临界点,利用断点回归方法,在不同带宽下分析网络口碑影响林产品销量的临界效应。研究发现:(1)当商品真实性、服务水平、物流水平三个维度的网络口碑超过行业平均水平的临界点时,林产品月销量平均增加40.03件、54.49件和30.21件,平均增长75.15%、102.31%和56.72%。(2)网络口碑商品真实性维度与林产品销量之间的关系存在顾客忠诚度门槛效应,当顾客忠诚度超过门槛值时,网络口碑的临界效应刺激林产品销量平均增长203.38%。(3)商品真实性、服务水平、物流水平三个维度网络口碑与林产品销量之间的关系存在消费者反馈评价数量的门槛效应,当超过门槛值时,网络口碑的临界效应刺激林产品销量平均增长378.84%、323.64%、220.70%。文章探究了网络口碑相对差异对林产品销量的影响,丰富了网络口碑的研究视角,并采用断点回归法克服网络口碑与林产品销量间的内生性问题,估计结果更加准确,为完善林产品电子商务信用评价机制提供决策参考。由此,提出完善口碑评分机制、加强网络诚信建设、培育公正规范的第三方评价机构、重视网络消费在扩大内需上的重要作用、完善公平竞争规制规则等政策启示。

The innovative Internet Cross-border integration transforms the consumption mode for forest products and promotes the transformation and upgrading of the forestry industry.Based on 10944 data for forestry durable products,including solid wood beds,composite wood floors and wooden doors in the Tmall website,the paper took the mean value of Internet word-of-mouth scores of stores in the same industry as the critical point,and analyzed the critical effect of Internet word-of-mouth on forest product sales through regression discontinuity design under different bandwidths.According to the research:(1)When the Internet word-of-mouth of commodity authenticity,service level and logistics level exceeded the critical point of the industry average value,the monthly sales of forest products would increase by an average of 40.03 pieces,54.49 pieces and 30.21 pieces,with an average increase of 75.15%,102.31%and 56.72%.(2)The relationship between Internet word-of-mouth commodity authenticity and forest product sales had the threshold effect of customer loyalty.When customer loyalty exceeded the threshold,Internet word-of-mouth stimulated the average growth of forest product sales by203.38%.(3)The relationship between the Internet word-of-mouth of commodity authenticity,service and logistics and the sales of forestry products had the threshold effect of consumer feedback evaluations.When the score exceeded the threshold value,Internet wordof-mouth stimulated the average growth of forest product sales by 378.84%,323.64%,and 220.70%.This paper explored the influence of the relative difference of Internet word-of-mouth on sales of forest products,enriched the research perspective of Internet word-of-mouth,and used regression discontinuity design to overcome the endogenous problem between Internet word-of-mouth and sales of forest products,which made the estimation result more accurate and provided decision-making reference for improving the credit evaluation mechanism of e-commerce of forest products.Therefore,some policy suggestions were put forward,such as perfecting the word-of-mouth scoring mechanism,strengthening the construction of network integrity,cultivating fair and standardized third-party evaluation institutions,paying attention to the important role of network consumption in expanding domestic demand,and perfecting the rules of fair competition.