中国种植业碳排放的测度、脱钩特征及驱动因素研究

CALCULATION,DECOUPLING EFFECTS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION FROM PLANTING INDUSTRY IN CHINA

[目的]研究中国种植业碳排放的时空差异、脱钩特征及驱动因素,为中国种植业低碳化可持续发展以及推动中国农业高质量发展的相关政策制定提供决策参考。[方法]文章基于2001—2018年中国大陆31个省(市,自治区)种植业农用物资投入、种植业产值等统计数据,通过IPCC碳排放系数法对种植业碳排放量进行测度,采用Tapio模型揭示中国种植业碳排放脱钩特征,并进一步运用LMDI模型探析种植业碳排放的主要驱动因素。[结果](1)近年中国种植业碳排总量来趋于下降,化肥是其最主要碳源,碳排放量、碳源及碳排放强度存在较大的地区差异;(2)中国种植业碳排放脱钩类型近年来整体上呈现强脱钩,但省际差异化明显;(3)生产效率的碳排放抑制作用趋于增强,生产结构的碳排放增加效应显著,产出水平是碳排放增加的最主要驱动因素,劳动因素的碳排放增加效应趋于下降。[结论]应坚持科技创新与结构优化、注重因地制宜与突出重点、着力提质增效与绿色发展,以期实现中国种植业低碳化高质量发展。

This research aims to study the temporal and spatial differences,decoupling characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in China’s planting industry,so as to provide reference for the sustainable development of low-carbon planting industry in China and the formulation of relevant policies to promote the high-quality agricultural development in China.Based on the statistical data of agricultural material input and production value of planting industry in 31 provinces(municipality and autonomous region)of China from 2001 to 2018,the carbon emissions of planting industry were measured by IPCC carbon emission coefficient method,and the Tapio model was adopted to reveal the decoupling characteristics of carbon emissions of planting industry in China,then the LMDI model was further used to explore the main driving factors of carbon emissions of planting industry.The results showed that:(1)The total carbon emission of China’s planting industry tended to decline in recent years.Fertilizer was the most important carbon source,and there were large regional differences in carbon emission,carbon source and carbon emission intensity.(2)In recent years,the decoupling types of carbon emissions in China’s planting industry were strong on the whole,but the provincial differences were obvious.(3)The inhibition effect of production efficiency on carbon emissions tended to be strengthened,the increase effect of production structure on carbon emissions was significant,the output level was the most important driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions,and the increase effect of labor factors tended to decline.Therefore,we should adhere to scientific and technological innovation and structural optimization,pay attention to local conditions and highlight key points,and focus on improving quality and efficiency and green development,so as to achieve low carbonization and high quality development of China’s planting industry.