黄河流域城市土地利用效率与土地财政、经济增长影响研究基于面板联立方程和门槛模型

Study on the Impact of Land Use Efficiency,Land Finance and Economic Growth in the Yellow River--Basin Based on Panel Simultaneous Equation and Threshold Model

为了探索土地利用效率与土地财政、经济增长三者之间的影响关系,选取黄河流域2009—2020年的面板数据进行实证分析,使用包含非期望产出的三阶段Super SBM-SFA模型测度城市土地利用效率,构建面板联立方程模型和门槛模型分析土地财政、经济增长与城市土地利用效率之间的影响机制。结果表明:①土地财政对黄河流域城市土地利用效率产生显著抑制作用,经济增长对土地利用效率产生显著促进作用,且经济增长还可以通过促进土地财政影响城市土地利用效率,但土地财政却不能通过经济增长影响城市土地利用效率。②土地财政在影响经济增长时存在土地利用效率的双门槛效应,证实土地财政与经济增长之间存在非线性关系和区域差异性。③黄河流域上下游的经济增长与土地财政具有互相促进作用,但中游的土地财政却不能有效促进经济增长。黄河流域内各城市要认清土地财政的负面影响,改革土地市场,借助市场手段实现土地要素对经济增长和土地利用效率的促进作用,建立以生态文明为主的土地财政模式。

In order to explore the relationship among land use efficiency,land finance and economic growth,this paper selected cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2018 as empirical analysis.This paper used the three-stage Super SBM-SFA model with unexpected output to measure urban land use efficiency.This paper constructed panel simultaneous equation model and threshold model to analyze the impact mechanism between land finance,economic growth and urban land use efficiency.The results showed that:①Land finance had a significant inhibitory effect on urban land use efficiency,economic growth had a significant role in promoting land use efficiency,and economic growth could also affect urban land use efficiency by promoting land finance.However,land finance could not affect urban land use efficiency through economic growth.②There was a double threshold effect of land use efficiency when land finance affects economic growth.It was confirmed that there was a nonlinear relationship and regional difference between land finance and economic growth.③The economic growth and land finance in the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin promoted each other,but the land finance in the middle reaches could not effectively promote economic growth.Cities in the Yellow River Basin should recognize the negative impact of land finance,and reform the land market,land factors could promote economic growth and land use efficiency with the help of market means,and establish a land finance model based on ecological civilization.