福建省节能减排政策效果评估基于多层指数分解模型

Evaluation of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Policy in Fujian Province Based on Multilevel-hierarchical Index Decomposition Model

为探讨能源消费量与能源消费产生的CO_(2)排放量增长的驱动因素,同时评估节能减排政策的实施效果,选择福建省作为研究区域,核算了2000—2019年福建省能源消费量和CO_(2)排放量,并运用多层指数分解模型对该省能源消费量和CO_(2)排放量进行分解研究,根据不同因素的分解结果评估节能减排政策的实施效果。结果表明:①福建省能源消费量和CO_(2)排放量的变化均表现为先逐年增长后趋于稳定,但未出现明显的下降。②福建省终端能源强度效应和能源转化效率效应主要表现为负效应,其他影响因素主要呈正效应,经济规模效应是最大的驱动因素。③在各项节能减排政策中,终端能源强度降低的政策效果最为明显,能源转化效率提高和初级能源结构优化的政策也取得了阶段性的成果,而优化经济结构的施行效果最不明显。

This paper presented the exploration of the drivers of growth in energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions from energy consumption and the assessment of the effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.Taking Fujian Province as the research area,this paper calculated the energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2019,and applied the multilevel-hierarchical LMPI model to decompose energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions based on the accounting results.This paper evaluated the implementation effects of energy conservation and emission reduction policies based on the decomposition results of different factors.The results showed that:①The changes of energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions in Fujian Province showed a year-on-year increase and then tends to be stable,but there was no obvious decline.②The terminal energy intensity effect and the energy conversion efficiency effect were mainly negative effects,and other influencing factors were mainly positive effects,among which the economic scale effect was the largest driving factor.③Among the various energy conservation and emission reduction policies,the policy effect of reducing terminal energy intensity was the most obvious,the policies of improving energy conversion efficiency and optimizing primary energy structure had also achieved phased results,while the implementation effect of optimizing economic structure was the least obvious.