商业银行不良贷款率的地区异质性及时间演变趋势分析

Analysis of Regional Heterogeneity and Time Evolution Trend of Non-Performing Loan Ratio of Commercial Banks

本文基于2006-2019年我国各省商业银行不良贷款率的数据,分析地区分布差异和演变趋势:商业银行不良贷款率总体上呈现波动下降的趋势,在2015前为东部最大、西部最小,而2015年后则是中部最大、东部最小,2006-2019年间,由“西高东低”的分布逐渐演变为“北高南低”的特征,地区异质性和演变的主要影响因素为经济、市场以及政策和文化等;为不同经济发展水平地区降低商业银行不良贷款率提出政策建议。

Based on the data of the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks in various provinces in China from 2006 to 2019,this article analyzes the regional distribution differences and evolution trends:The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks generally shows a downward trend of fluctuation.Before 2015,it was the largest in the east region and the smallest in the west region,while after 2015,it was the largest in the central region and the smallest in the east region.From 2006 to 2019,the distribution of“high in the west and low in the east”gradually evolved into a characteristic of“high in the north and low in the south”.The main factors affecting regional heterogeneity and evolution are economy,market,policy and culture,etc.;it proposes policy suggestions for reducing the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks in regions with different economic development levels.