基于IOWGA算子的组合模型在路基沉降预测中的应用

Application of Combined Model Based on IOWGA Operator in Subgrade Settlement Prediction

为提高路基沉降预测的精度和可靠性,以改进Gompertz模型和灰色Verhulst模型为单一模型构建了一种基于诱导有序加权几何平均算子的组合预测模型,并结合工程实测路基沉降数据对组合预测模型的有效性和可靠性进行验证。结果表明:深圳滨海大道的实例中组合预测模型的预测精度指标MAE分别比两个单一模型提高53.91%和87.97%,可靠性指标SPE分别比两单一模型提高50%和87.88%。较之单一预测模型,基于IOWGA算子的改进Gompertz-灰色Verhulst组合预测模型预测精度和可靠性更高,适应性更强。

In order to improve the precision and reliability of subgrade settlement prediction,a combined prediction model based on induced ordered weighted geometric average operator is constructed by improving Gompertz model and Grey Verhulst model,the validity and reliability of the combined prediction model are verified by the measured settlement data of subgrade.The results show that in the case of Shenzhen Binhai Avenue,the MAE(prediction accuracy index)of the combined forecasting model is 53.91% and 87.97% higher than that of the two single models,respectively,and the SPE(reliability index)is 50% and 87.88% higher than that of the two single models,respectively.Compared with the single prediction model,the improved Gompertz-Grey Verhulst combined forecasting model based on IOWGA operator has higher prediction accuracy,reliability and adaptability.