基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的民航突发事件预警指标体系研究

Research on early warning index system of civil aviation emergencies based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

民航突发事件不仅会造成巨大经济损失和重大人员伤亡,还会直接影响民航业的发展和人民群众对民航业的信心。针对民航突发事件特点,通过对民航大数据中心记录的突发案事件信息进行碰撞对比,对大量案例进行分析总结,参考支付宝芝麻信用评分系统,对自然状况、职业情况、家庭情况、公共记录、航行情况、社会关系和异常行为七方面数据进行整合,多方面对行为人个人状况进行风险评估,建立民航突发事件预警指标体系,可以为新时期民航安保工作提供情报研判信息支撑。当相关人员出现在机场时,安保部门和相关工作人员能够及时警觉甄别、快速反应,防止危害公共安全事件的发生。

Civil aviation emergencies will not only cause huge economic losses and heavy casualties,but also directly affect the development of the civil aviation industry and the people’s confidence in the civil aviation industry.According to the characteristics of civil aviation emergencies,through the collision and comparison of the emergency case information recorded by the civil aviation big data center,a large number of cases are analyzed and summarized.Refer to Alipay Sesame Credit Scoring System,integrate the seven aspects of data,natural status,occupational status,family status,public records,navigation situation,social relationship and abnormal behavior,conduct risk assessment on the personal situation of the perpetrator in multiple aspects,and establish an early warning indicator system for civil aviation emergencies,which can provide intelligence research and judgment information support for civil aviation security work in the new era.When the relevant personnel appear at the airport,the security department and relevant staff can be alerted and screened in a timely manner and respond quickly to prevent the occurrence of incidents that endanger public safety.