地震降低城市吸引力了吗?--汶川特大地震对高校毕业生就业地选择的影响

Did Earthquake Reduce the Attractiveness of Cities? The Impact of Wenchuan Earthquake on College Graduates’ Job Location Choice

人力资本是经济发展的重要动力,高技能人力资本流动将影响区域经济发展格局。本文利用2003—2019年全国高校毕业生就业调查数据,通过双重差分模型实证分析了汶川特大地震对高校毕业生就业地选择的影响。研究发现:第一,汶川地震后四川高校毕业生留川就业概率显著下降,且外地生较本地生下降更多,但该负向影响不会长期存在。第二,地震后成绩越好的四川毕业生离川就业的概率越大,家庭处于中间阶层的四川毕业生离川就业的概率更大。第三,地震后劳动力需求扩张的在川行业和岗位更容易留住四川毕业生,继续留川的毕业生享受了更高的工资待遇。本文研究丰富了自然灾害如何影响劳动力流动的相关研究,为地方政府加大防灾减灾投入和受灾地政府出台人才吸引政策提供了依据。

High human capital is an important force of economic development,and the flow of high human capital will affect the pattern of regional economic development.Using the data of the National College Graduates Employment Survey from 2003 to 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on college graduates’job location choice through the DID model.First,we find that after the Wenchuan Earthquake,the probability of college graduates in Sichuan choosing to work in Sichuan decreased significantly,and the students from other provinces decreased more than the students from Sichuan,but this negative effect will not exist for a long time.Second,the higher academic performance,the higher the probability of fleeing from Sichuan.And graduates from the middle class were more likely to flee from Sichuan.Third,industries and positions where labor demand expanded after the earthquake found it easier to retain Sichuan graduates,and those who stayed enjoyed higher wages.This study enriches the relevant research on how natural disasters affect labor mobility,and provides a policy basis for local governments to strengthen investment in disaster prevention and mitigation and governments in disaster-affected areas to introduce policies to attract talents.