“三孩”政策背景下北京市义务教育阶段学位需求预测

Projections of Compulsory Education Enrollment in Beijing under the Background of the “Three-Child” Policy

本文在Leslie矩阵模型的基础上,提出两阶段假设义务教育阶段学位预测模型,降低了预测数据的获取难度,提高了可预测频率和预测精度。在考虑到“三孩”政策影响的基础上,使用北京市教育事业统计数据、第六次和第七次人口普查数据,对2021—2035年北京市义务教育阶段学位需求进行了预测。根据预测结果显示,从2021—2035年,北京义务教育阶段学位需求呈倒U型,2025年达到峰值后,开始逐步下降。峰值年份将达到153.5万人,与2020年已提供的学位相比,缺口为20.9万人。“三孩”政策对义务教育阶段学位需求的影响有限,无法改变2028年时学位需求的下降趋势。本文在国内首次使用不同年份数据对预测进行误差分析,并且预测结果在4年内误差绝对值均在2.9%以内。面对学位需求的波动性及不同教育阶段承压时间段不同,应以“改扩建为主,适当新建”为原则,探索构建弹性学位供给教育体系。

Based the Leslie matrix,this paper proposes the Two-stage Hypothetical Compulsory Education Enrollment Projection Model,which reduces the difficulty of obtaining data and improves the projections frequency and accuracy.Taking the impact of the“Three-child”policy into account,based on data from Beijing Educational School Year Statistics from 2016 to 2021,Sixth and Seventh Beijing Population Census,the enrollment numbers of the compulsory education in Beijing from 2021 to 2035 are projected.According to the projections,the trend of enrollment will be an inverted U-shape,and after reaching the peak in 2025,it will gradually decline.The enrollment number in peak year will be 1.5 million,a shortage of 209 thousand compared to the enrollment number in 2020.The“Three-child”policy has a limited impact on the enrollment numbers of the compulsory education,and cannot change the downward trend in 2028.Under the same assumptions,based the data from the 2016—2020 school year,to verify the accuracy of the projections,the absolute percentage errors within four years are within 2.9%.Under these circumstances,a sponge education system based on the principle of“renovation,expansion,and appropriate new construction”should be established.