基于火焰燃烧模型的输电线路山火跳闸风险分布评估

Risk Distribution Assessment of Wildfire-induced Trips in Transmission Line Based on Flame Combustion Model

输电线路常跨越植被茂密的林区和人类活动频繁的农田等区域,极易发生山火,严重影响电网的安全稳定运行。为开展差异化的防山火措施,该文提出一种基于火焰燃烧模型的输电线路山火跳闸风险分布评估方法。首先选取人为因素、线路下垫面因素、气象和地形因素四大类数据构建输电走廊的山火发生风险评估模式,基于贝叶斯原理计算山火发生概率;然后估算山火条件下的火焰高度等火焰燃烧参数,考虑不同火焰燃烧情况下间隙绝缘的下降程度,计算线路绝缘击穿风险;最后结合山火发生风险概率和线路绝缘击穿风险,综合评估输电线路山火跳闸风险。基于输电线路山火跳闸风险值,可将电网线路的山火跳闸风险进行风险等级划分,并绘制输电线路山火跳闸风险分布图,明确线路山火防治重要区段。

Transmission lines often pass through areas with dense forests and frequent human activities,in where wildfires are extremely prone to occur.The wildfires in transmission corridors have seriously affected the safe and stable operation of the power grid.In order to specify differentiated fire protection measures,this paper proposes a method for assessing the risk distribution of wildfire-induced trips on transmission lines based on the flame combustion model.Firstly,four classes of data including human activities,underlying surface conditions,meteorological and topographic factors were selected.And the Bayes-based risk assessment model was constructed to calculate the probability of wildfire occurrence in transmission corridors.Then,flame parameters were estimated to characterize flame combustion conditions.Considering the degradation of gap insulation under different flame combustion conditions,the risk of insulation breakdown of line gap was calculated.Finally,by combining the probabilities of wildfire occurrence and the risk of insulation breakdown of line gap,the com-prehensive risk of wildfire-induced trips in transmission lines was assessed.According to the risk value of wildfire-induced trips in transmission lines,the risk levels of transmission lines can be classified and the risk distribution map can be drawn to clarify the important sections for wildfire prevention.