房地产市场情绪影响因素研究

Research on influencing factors of real estate market sentiment

房地产市场情绪一直被认为是房地产价格波动的重要因素,然而房地产市场情绪是否会受到外部因素影响值得深入研究。文章以2012年到2021年中国房价波动为例,使用结构方程模型构建了房地产市场情绪指标,并运用国家统计局、百度指数数据和Wind数据库数据拟合分析了房地产市场情绪影响因素的路径机制,验证了各影响因素最终对房价的影响。研究发现:首先,政府利率调整、网络媒体报道、股票市场波动、土地价格均与房地产市场情绪呈正相关,其中土地价格影响最大;其次,二手房交易量提升将能有效调节房地产市场情绪对房价的影响。本研究将会有助于分析市场与政府的关系。

The real estate market sentiment fluctuation has always been regarded as an important factor of real estate price fluctuation.However,whether the real estate market sentiment will be affected by external factors is worthy of in-depth study.Taking China’s house price fluctuation from 2012 to 2021 as an example,this paper constructs the sentiment index of the real estate market by using the structural equation model,and uses the data of the National Bureau of Statistics,Baidu Index and Wind database to fit and analyze the path mechanism of the influencing factors of the sentiment of the real estate market,and verifies the final impact of each influencing factor on the house price.The study found that:firstly,government interest rate adjustment,online media reports,stock market fluctuations and land prices all have a positive correlation with real estate market sentiment,among which land prices have the greatest impact;secondly,the study found that the increase of second-hand real estate transaction volume will effectively adjust the impact of real estate market sentiment on house prices.This study provides empirical support for coordinating the relationship between the market and the government and building a long-term mechanism of the real estate market.