过度旅游的综合评价方法及其实证研究

Comprehensive evaluation methods of over-tourism and corresponding empirical research

针对过度旅游对旅游目的地造成紊乱的问题,对过度旅游的成因及危害进行总结分析,利用统计数据确定综合旅游密度、旅游强度、民宿密度3项判断过度旅游状态的指标,并将3项指标分数之和作为评价过度旅游的指标值;使用Zipf分布双对数图与H/T断裂点法确定数据等级划分方式,采用定距分数累加方式建立过度旅游综合评价方法;利用国内外代表性旅游城市的数据进行了实证分析,验证了所建立综合评价方法的可行性。研究认为,过度旅游综合评价分数给出了旅游目的地过度旅游程度的相对顺序,能够推测各样本过度旅游风险所对应的要素,为制定过度旅游对应政策的优先级提供参考;在样本城市中,国外过度旅游目的地注重流量管控、征收旅游税等三四级对策,而中国过度旅游目的地注重景区保护和流量管控等二三级对策,尽管国内样本城市旅游服务负荷已高于部分发达国家,但未出现排斥游客的过度旅游现象;国内仍需要利用经济手段避免部分地区的旅游业依赖,升级城市景区保护为城市全域保护,适时推进旅游税政策。

In view of the disorderly factors caused by over-tourism in the tourist destinations,this paper aims to summarize and analyze the causes of formation and harms of over-tourism,by using the three indicators of tourism density,intensity of tourism,and density of guesthouse to determine the status of over-tourism based on analytical statistics,and adopting the sum of the scores of the above three indicators as the index value for evaluating over-tourism.This paper then uses the Zipf distribution log-log graph and Head/tail break method to determine the data categorization method,and adopts the spaced score accumulation method to establish the comprehensive evaluation method of over-tourism.Next,it conducts empirical analysis on the data collected from cross-sectional domestic and overseas tourist cities and verifies the feasibility of the above evaluation method.Findings through the data analysis are as follows.Firstly,the comprehensive evaluation score for over-tourism shows the relative sequence of the extent of over-tourism of tourist destinations,from which the corresponding factors of the over-tourism risks of each city can be deduced.This will offer reference for setting the priority of relevant policies targeting over-tourism.Secondly,among the sample cities,the overseas destinations with risks of over-tourism focus on third-and fourth-tiers countermeasures such as traffic regulation and levying tourist tax,while those in China focus on second-and third-tier countermeasures such as scenic spot conservation and traffic regulation.Although China's tourist services bear more traffic load than those of certain developed countries,no phenomenon of over-tourism that declines tourists has appeared.Thirdly,China still needs to utilize economic means to avoid the over-reliance of certain regions on tourism,upgrade the scenic spot conservation in the city to all-round conservation of the whole city,and implement tourist tax policies as needed.