仙居县气温变化特征研究

Characteristics of Temperature Change in Xianju County

选取仙居县1960-2020年气温数据,运用线性趋势分析法、R/S分析法、小波分析法、M-K分析法等研究仙居县气温变化特征。结果表明:仙居县近60年平均气温呈上升趋势,上升了约1.4℃。冬季和春季成为气温增长趋势的最主要贡献者;平均气温大致可划分为2个时期,1960-1998年的偏冷期,1999-2020年的偏暖期。平均气温虽然没有发生突变,但在1988年左右气温开始转为偏暖,且在2008年前后显著上升;对于季节平均气温,除春季没通过突变检验外,其他季节均发生了突变。仙居县平均温度在演变过程中存在着2~5年短周期规律和10~20年较长周期规律。四季和全年的平均气温Hurst值都大于0.5,表明未来的气温变化趋势与过去的气温变化趋势相同,都将持续增暖。

Based on the temperature data of Xianju County from 1960 to 2020,the characteristics of temperature change in Xianju County were studied by using linear trend analysis,R/S analysis,wavelet analysis and M-K analysis.The results showed that the average temperature in Xianju County had increased by 1.4℃in recent 60 years.Winter and spring became the main contributors to the temperature increase trend.The average temperature could be roughly divided into two periods:the cold period from 1960 to 1998,and the warm period from 1999 to 2020.Although there was no abrupt change in average temperature,the temperature began to warm around 1988 and increased significantly around 2008.For the seasonal average temperature,there were abrupt changes in other seasons except spring.The average temperature in Xianju had a short period of 2-5 years and a long period of 10-20 years.The Hurst values of the average temperature in the four seasons and the whole year were greater than 0.5,indicating that the temperature change trend in the future was the same as that in the past,and would continue to warm.