中国加入RCEP与CPTPP的贸易、福利及关税效应对比——基于WITS-SMART的实证分析

Trade,Welfare and Tariff Effects of China’s Entry into RCEP and CPTPP:An Empirical Analysis Based on WITS-SMART

亚太地区相继签署落地的“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(CPTPP)和“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(RCEP)将为中国的经济发展带来新机遇。在此基础上,利用WITS-SMART模型模拟计算中国对RCEP和CPTPP成员国实施自由贸易后带来的贸易效应、福利效应和关税效应。结果显示,RCEP和CPTPP带给中国市场的贸易总效应相差不大,CPTPP造成的贸易转移效应相对更高。RCEP和CPTPP的关税减让效应均超过20%,但CPTPP减让的商品种类更多。不同部门间由于比较优势和进口竞争能力的差异,实现的市场剩余高低不均,但政府和生产者的剩余明显下降。绝大多数国家无论参与RCEP或CPTPP均能实现扩大对华出口,而技术差距是推动日本对华出口扩大的重要因素。尽管RCEP和CPTPP会给中国的关税收入带来明显下降,但是贸易和福利效应的大幅度提升会抵销关税收入的负面影响,进一步实现经济一体化的益处。

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)signed and implemented in succession in the Asia Pacific region will bring new opportunities for China’s economic development.On this basis,the WITS-SMART model is applied for analog computation of the trade,welfare and tariff effects brought by China’s tariff reduction to RCEP and CPTPP member countries.The results show that the total trade effect brought by CPTPP and RCEP to the Chinese market is similar,yet the trade diversion effect caused by CPTPP is relatively greater.The tariff concession effects brought by RCEP and CPTPP both exceed 20%,but more commodities are covered in CPTPP Schedule of Tariff Commitments.Due to the difference in comparative advantages and import competitiveness among sectors,market surplus is unevenly distributed,and the government and producer surplus shows a significant decrease.Most countries can achieve an expansion of their exports to China regardless of their participation in RCEP or CPTPP,and the technological gap is an important factor in promoting the expansion of Japan’s exports to China.Although RCEP and CPTPP will significantly reduce China’s tariff revenue,the significant increase in trade and welfare effects will offset the negative impact and further realize the benefits of economic integration.