基于GIS的福建省塑料大棚风害风险评估与区划

Risk Assessment and Division of Wind Damage to Plastic Greenhouses in Fujian Province Based on Geographic Information System

为了探索福建省复杂地形下的塑料大棚风害风险,规避或减轻风害对大棚发展的不利影响,利用福建省203个气象观测站的2010-2016年的逐日最大风速资料,构建塑料大棚风害危险性指标,采用层次分析法、熵权法、加权综合评价法等确定风险区划指标权重和风险指数,结合高分辨率的地形数据,建立风害风险指数的地理推算模型,并基于GIS技术开展福建省塑料大棚风害的风险区划。研究结果表明,沿海区域大棚风害总体呈现离海越近、风险越高的趋势,而内陆区域大棚风害总体呈现海拔越高、风险越高的趋势。轻度风害风险区主要分布在内陆中低海拔地区;中度风害风险区主要分布在内陆较高海拔地区和沿海县市的西部区域;重度以上风害风险区主要分布在沿海县市的东部近海区域,此外,内陆高海拔地域也有零星的重度风害风险区,其中平潭等海岛县市有严重风害风险。

This paper aims to find out the risk-distribution of wind damage to plastic greenhouses under the complicated terrain of Fujian and to avoid or reduce the adverse impact of wind damage on greenhouses development.Based on the daily maximum wind speed data from 203 meteorological stations in Fujian province from 2010 to 2016,the risk indexes for wind damage to plastic greenhouses are constructed.The weight coefficient of risk zoning indicators and risk indexes are worked out by applying the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),entropy-weight coefficient and weighted comprehensive evaluation methods.The geographical prediction model of wind damage risk index is established combined with high-resolution topographic data,and the risk zoning of wind damage to plastic greenhouses in Fujian is made based on GIS technology.The results indicate that wind damage to greenhouses in coastal areas generally shows the trend that the closer to the coastline,the greater the risk,while in inland regions the risk increases with the increase of altitude.The areas with low risk of wind damage to plastic greenhouses are mainly located in the inland areas of mid-low altitudes.Moderate risk regions affected by wind damage are mainly distributed in the higher altitude areas in the inland and the western part of coastal counties.The severe wind damage risk areas mostly exist in the eastern regions of coastal counties and cities.In addition,there are also scattered severe wind damage risk areas in inland high altitude regions,among which the wind damage risk in Pingtan and other island counties is serious.