新冠疫情与世界人口死亡率变动——基于27国人口平均预期寿命的分析

The COVID-19 and Variations of World Population Mortality:Analysis Based on Average Life Expectancy of 27 Countries

目前关于新冠疫情下人口死亡率变动的研究仍较为有限。对此,基于人类死亡率数据库,测算了27个国家(主要为欧美发达国家)2020—2021年(截至2021年9月26日)的平均预期寿命,并对平均预期寿命的变动进行了分年龄分解。结果表明,27国中绝大多数国家的15岁平均预期寿命在2020年经历了较为显著的下降。其中,美国、俄罗斯和保加利亚的降幅最大,分别达到2.2年、2.1年和1.8年。在2021年,27国平均预期寿命的变动趋势出现分化。其中,西欧和南欧国家的15岁平均预期寿命有所反弹,但少数东欧国家的15岁平均预期寿命则继续下探。进一步的分年龄分解表明,2020年27国15岁平均预期寿命的下降绝大部分是由65岁及以上老年人口的平均预期寿命下降所致,而年轻人口平均预期寿命下降的作用较小。另外,男性在多数年龄上的平均预期寿命降幅大于女性,但在高龄阶段,男性的平均预期寿命降幅要小于女性。值得注意的是,虽然27国中绝大多数国家人口平均预期寿命在2021年有所反弹,但部分国家年轻人口的平均预期寿命降幅仍然显著,并呈现一定的扩大趋势,反映出新冠疫情死亡风险的年轻化特征。研究展示了新冠疫情下人口死亡率变动的最新国际发展态势,以及人口死亡率变动在不同人群中的趋势和特征,为防疫政策的制定及调整提供了参考。

Understanding of the mortality variations driven by the COVID-19 pandemic at the population level is apparently limited in the existing literature.Using the data derived from the Human Mortality Database,this study presents a comprehensive examination regarding the changes in life expectancy from 2020 to 2021(as of September 26,2021)and the relevant age-decomposition analysis in 27 countries(mainly developed countries in Europe and the United States).The findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic had resulted in an immense decline in life expectancy in 2020 among the 27 countries investigated.The largest reduction in life expectancy at age 15 in 2020 was observed in the United States,reaching-2.2 years,followed by-2.1 years in Russia and-1.8 years in Bulgaria.In 2021,trends of life expectancy at age 15 diverged among the 27 countries,with those located in Western Europe and Southern Europe experiencing a rebound in life expectancy at age 15,while some other countries,largely located in Eastern Europe,suffered a continuing decline.Further age-decomposition analysis indicates that the reductions in life expectancy at age 15 among the 27 countries in 2020 were largely driven by reductions in life expectancy at age 65 and over,but were less contributed by the changes in life expectancy at younger age.Additionally,life expectancy decreased more for men at most ages than for women,but more for women at ages above 85.It is worth noting that while life expectancy of the majority of the 27 countries rebounded in 2021,life expectancy of the young population in some countries still decreased reflecting a greater risk of COVID-19 for young people.Results from this study present an updated investigation regarding the latest mortality variations internationally and the trends and characteristics of population mortality changes in different populations,shedding new light on the policy formulation to cope with the challenges arising from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.