中国跨城乡通婚的模式与变动趋势研究:1978—2018

Patterns and Trends of Urban-rural Intermarriage in China:1978-2018

从跨城乡通婚的角度研究城乡社会融合具有重要意义。现有关于跨城乡通婚的研究大多关注通婚率的变化,很少有研究分析跨城乡通婚的形成机制及其变迁。基于地位交换论、社会排斥论和双向融合论提出解释中国跨城乡通婚的三种理论模式和标志城乡融合不断发展的三个通婚阶段。通过对2012—2018年四期中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据的深入分析,发现中国跨城乡通婚的比例较低,但随时间呈明显的上升趋势。在1978—1991年间,跨城乡通婚中的地位交换现象非常明显,农村一方的教育程度对跨城乡通婚有显著的正向影响,而城市一方的教育程度对跨城乡通婚有显著的负向影响,且通婚中表现出非常明显的农村一方教育低就和城市一方教育高攀的现象。随着时间的推移,地位交换论对跨城乡通婚的解释力逐渐削弱,社会排斥论的解释力不断增强,2005年以后,城市一方的教育程度对跨城乡通婚的负向影响已趋于消失,农村一方在通婚中教育低就的现象也基本消除,我国跨城乡通婚的模式正在从地位交换阶段向社会排斥阶段过渡。跨城乡通婚模式的变化标志着我国城乡融合取得了阶段性成果,但当前跨城乡通婚的难度依然较大,且农村社会下层依然被排斥于通婚之外,进一步消除城乡分割并促进城乡社会融合仍是需要长期关注的重要问题。

Urban-rural intermarriage provides an important perspective on the study of urban-rural integration in China.The majority of existing research works on this issue have focused on the change of intermarriage rate,but few studies have analyzed the formation mechanism of urban-rural intermarriage and its changes.Based on the theory of status exchange,social exclusion theory,and structural assimilation theory,this study puts forward three theoretical models to explain China’s urban-rural intermarriage,which correspond to three sequential stages of urban-rural integration.Through an in-depth analysis of the data of the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)in 2012,2014,2016,and 2018,the study found that the proportion of urban-rural intermarriage rate was very low,but showed a clear upward trend over time.From 1978 to 1991,the status of urban an rural marriage exchange was very obvious.Meanwhile,the education level of rural side has a significant positive effect on urban-rural intermarriage,while the education level of urban side has a significant negative effect on it.Moreover,intermarriage showed an obvious phenomenon of high education in rural party and low education in urban party.As time went by,the explanatory power of status exchange theory on urban-rural intermarriages has gradually weakened,while social exclusion theory has been continuously enhanced.The negative effect of urban side’s education on urban-rural intermarriage tended to disappear after 2005,and the phenomenon of low deucation level of the urban party on inter-urban marriage tended to disappear,and the phenomenon of low education level of rural party in inter-urban marriage also basically died off.Therefore the pattern of urban-rural intermarriage has changed from status exchange stage to social exclusion stage.We argue that the change of intermarriage pattern indicates a huge periodic development of urban-rural integration.However,urban-rural intermarriage is still very difficult present and the lower class of rural society is still excluded from marrying urban people.Therefore,more comprehensive measures should be taken to further break down the social boundaries between rural and urban society and to further promote urban-rural integration in China.