数字经济高质量发展预警模型构建与实证

Construction and Empirical Study of Early-warning Model for High-quality Development of Digital Economy

文章针对数字经济高质量发展监测的盲点,以新发展理念为指导思想,构建了涵盖数字经济创新发展、协调发展、绿色发展、开放发展和共享发展5个一级指标、12个二级指标和47个三级指标的数字经济高质量发展评价指标体系。通过主客观融合赋权的方法,结合系统化方法和灰色系统理论,设计了数字经济高质量发展指数及相应的监测预警机制。采用我国2015—2018年的数据进行测算和预测建模,结果显示:(1)我国数字经济高质量发展指数呈递增趋势,由2015年的53.03增长到2018年83.55,高于同期经济高质量发展指数增长速度;(2)我国数字经济高质量发展中的绿色发展贡献作用明显,共享发展贡献作用在2017年开始大幅增加;(3)2019年和2020年我国数字经济高质量发展指数较2018年预计保持15%以上的增速,创新发展、开放发展、绿色发展和共享发展指数将处于快速增长阶段,而协调发展指数增速相对缓慢。

Aiming at the blind spots in monitoring the high-quality development of digital economy, this paper is guided by the new development concepts to establish an evaluation index system of high-quality development of digital economy, which covers five first-level indicators, 12 second-level indicators and 47 third-level indicators, including innovative development, coordinated development, green development, open development and shared development. And then, through the combination of subjective and objective weights methods, the paper combines with the systematic method and grey system theory to design the highquality development index of digital economy and the corresponding monitoring and early-warning mechanism. Finally, the data from 2015 to 2018 are used for calculation and prediction modeling. The results are shown as follows:(1) The high-quality development index of China’s digital economy shows an increasing trend, from 53.03 in 2015 to 83.55 in 2018, which is higher than the growth rate of high-quality development index of China’s economy in the same period.(2) In the high-quality development of China’s digital economy, the contribution of green development is obvious, and the contribution of shared development gradually increases sharply in 2017.(3) The high-quality development index of China’s digital economy in 2019 and 2020 is expected to keep a growth rate of more than 15% compared with that in 2018. The indexes of innovative development, open development,green development and shared development will be in the stage of rapid growth, while the growth rate of coordinated development index is relatively slow.