增值税改革与中国制造业企业出口持续时间

VAT Reform and Export Duration of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

增强出口企业风险抵御能力、保持出口持续稳定发展始终是发展出口贸易的重中之重。本文基于1998—2013年中国工业企业数据库,以2004—2009年增值税转型试点政策作为准自然试验,采用多期差分模型,运用生存分析法考察了增值税改革对企业出口持续时间的影响。结果发现,增值税改革显著降低了企业出口风险,有效提升了企业出口持续时间,且该提升效应对于国有、大型、高生产率企业以及劳动密集型和一般技术行业的企业更为显著。进一步,增值税改革主要通过促进企业固定资产投资和提升企业全要素生产率来降低企业出口风险,延长其出口持续时间。

Strengthening the risk resistance ability of export enterprises and maintaining the sustained and stable development of export have always been the top priority of the export trade.Based on the data of Annual Survey of Industrial Firms(ASIF)from1998 to 2013,this paper takes the value added tax(VAT)transformation pilot policies from 2004 to 2009 as a quasi-natural experiment to adopt a multi-period triple-difference model,and investigates the impact of the VAT reform on the export duration of enterprises by survival analysis.The results show that the VAT reform significantly reduces the export risk of enterprises and effectively increases the export duration of enterprises,and this promoting effect is more significant for state-owned,large,high-productivity enterprises as well as enterprises in labor-intensive and general technology industries.Furthermore,the VAT reform reduces the export risk and prolongs the export duration mainly by promoting enterprises’investment in fixed assets and total factor productivity.