中欧班列运输通道风险分析及建议

Risk Analysis and Proposals on Transportation Corridor of CRE

2022年是中欧班列开行的第12年,12年来中欧班列运量逐步攀升,去回程比例趋于接近,运送品类更加丰富。2020年的新冠疫情使中欧班列由买方市场向卖方市场转变,并呈现出新的发展特点,在疫情期间体现出重要的战略价值,成为中欧间海运方式的补充。但与此同时,运输通道风险也逐步显现,其风险分为宏观风险和微观风险。宏观风险归结为运输通道沿线国家地缘政治、贸易政策、社会环境、自然环境因素给中欧班列运行带来的风险,微观风险归结为政策规划、规则标准、运输能力、物流成本、市场壁垒、信息服务等铁路内在因素给中欧班列运行带来的风险。对此,有关部门应根据风险特点,从制定分类防范措施、统筹推进分步实施、深化政府间合作、政策与规划对接、打造中欧班列高质量发展的环境、推进市场化发展等方面进行风险防范。

The year 2022 marks the 12th anniversary of the operation of China Railway Express(CRE). Over the past 12 years, the freight volume of CRE trains has been gradually increased,and the proportion of outbound and return trips has become closer, and the delivery categories have become more diversified. Due to COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the CRE has transformed from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market, which has taken on new development features. It has shown important strategic value during the pandemic and become a supplement to maritime transport between China and Europe. But at the same time, risks posed by the transportation corridors are gradually revealed, including risks at both macro and micro level. Macro risks for the CRE can be attributed to the geopolitics, trade policies, social environment and natural environment of countries along the transportation corridor, while at micro level, policy planning,rules and standards, transport capacity, logistics costs, market barriers and data services are risk-causing factors. In this regard, the competent authority should take prevention measures according to the classification and characteristics of risks, make overall plan and implement stepby-step. Inter-governmental cooperation should be highlighted to align policies and plans, make it more market-oriented, in order to create an enabling environment for high-quality development of the CRE.