基于人活动轨迹的住院楼新冠病毒气溶胶传播风险研究

The Risk Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Aerosol Transmission in Inpatient Buildings Based on Human Activity Trajectory

建筑室内人员的活动规律,特别是封闭空间中的停留时间,对于以气溶胶为媒介的疾病传播风险有重要影响。本文通过实地调研,获取了深圳市某住院楼的典型护理单元在一周内完整的人员活动轨迹和各空间停留时间,利用CO_(2)下降法测量了新风换气次数。根据西太平洋区域血清流行病学调查结果,假设出现初始感染者的概率为1.7%,利用Wells-Riley方程计算新冠病毒气溶胶传播的概率。住院楼中新冠病毒感染风险由高到低依次是患者(累计一周平均为14.9%)、陪护(13.3%)、护士(11.5%)和医生(3.3%)。从功能空间角度,病房内发生新冠病毒感染的概率较高,其次为护士站、办公室及药房,其余空间的感染风险相对较小。本研究通过模拟计算,证明可通过减少陪护人员、提高新风换气次数和佩戴口罩等措施,降低住院楼新冠病毒气溶胶传播风险。文章研究结果可以为医院建筑的防疫设计、运维管理等提供依据。

The occupants’ activity within the building,especially in the enclosed spaces,exerts a crucial impact on the risk of disease transmission through aerosols.Through field research,this paper obtained the complete trajectory of personnel activity and stay time in each space in a typical nursing unit of an inpatient building in Shenzhen,and the number of fresh air changes was measured through the CO_(2) concentration decay method.According to the results of the seroprevalence of general population in Western Pacific Region,assuming that the probability of initial infection is 1.7%,the Wells-Riley equation is used to calculate the probability of aerosol transmission of the SARS-CoV-2.The calculation results show that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the nursing unit is the patients,the attendants,the nurses,and the doctors in descending order(the weekly cumulative value is 14.9%,13.3%,11.5%,and 3.3% respectively).From the perspective of functional space,the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the ward is the highest,followed by the nurse station,the office and pharmacy,and the risk of infection in the remaining spaces is very small.Through simulation calculations,this study proved that the risk of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the nursing unit can be lowered by reducing the number of attendants,increasing the air change rate,and wearing masks.The research results can provide a basis for the design of epidemic prevention measures and maintenance management of hospital,etc.