基于LMDI的建筑业用电量分解和蒙特卡洛情景研究

Power Consumption Decomposition of Construction Industry based on LMDI and Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis

中国经济进入新常态对各行业的高质量发展提出更高的要求,建筑业高质量发展的同时也消耗大量的能源,如电力等。文章采用LMDI分解方法将建筑业用电量分解为用电强度、产业结构、经济发展和人口规模四大驱动因素,得出经济增长是用电量增长的主要因素,而人口规模的增加对建筑业用电量的影响较小。同时基于蒙特卡洛情景分析,在基础情景和省电情景下,分别预测2021年到2035年的建筑业用电量,并且得出在省电情景下2035年的建筑业用电量将会是基础情景下建筑业电量的五分之一。

China's economy has entered the new normal era,which puts forward higher requirements for the high-quality development of various industries.The high-quality development of the construction industry also consumes lots of energy like electricity.LMDI method was used to decompose the power consumption of the construction industry into four driving factors:power consumption intensity,industrial structure,economic development and population scale.The results showed that economic growth was the main factor of power consumption growth.The increase of population-scale had little impact on the power consumption of the construction industry.In addition,two scenarios including basic scenario and power-saving scenario were conducted using Monte Carlo scenario analysis.The construction power consumption(2021-2035)was predicted in two scenarios,respectively.The results demonstrated that power consumption in 2035 under power saving scenario was one-fifth of that obtained under the basic scenario.