黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域洪水预报研究

Flood Forecasting of Small Watershed in Loess Hilly and Gully Region

黄土高原地区由于其短历时高强度的暴雨特性引起洪水陡涨陡落,不仅影响防洪安全,也使得预报难度加大。为避免单一模型预报结果的不确定性,以岔巴沟流域作为典型代表,采用多个模型(水箱模型、NAM模型、陕北模型)对其进行洪水预报研究,并对比分析了不同模型的应用效果。结果表明,三个模型在该地区均有一定的适应性;无论对洪峰或洪水过程线,水箱模型模拟效果整体均为最优,且具有更好的稳定性;对部分大洪水,NAM模型对于峰现时间把控更好,模拟精度更高;陕北模型总体对于涨洪阶段模拟效果更好。研究结果对岔巴沟流域防洪减灾具有重要的意义,亦可为黄土丘陵沟壑区洪水预报及水土保持等工作提供参考依据。

Due to the short-duration and high-intensity rainstorm in the Loess Plateau area, the floods fluctuate sharply, which not only affects flood control safety, but also makes forecasting more difficult. The Chabagou catchment was selected as the typical watershed of loess hilly and gully region. In order to avoid the uncertainty of single model forecast results, multiple models(tank model, NAM model and Shanbei model) were used to study the flood forecasting, and the application effects of different models were compared. The simulation results show that all three models have certain adaptability in the area. Regardless of the flood peak or the flood hygrograph, the simulation effect of tank model is optimal and has better stability. For some large floods, NAM model has better control over the time of peak appearance and higher simulation accuracy. Shanbei model has better simulation effect for flood rising stage. The research results are of great significance for flood control and disaster reduction in Chabagou catchment, and can provide a certain basis for flood forecasting and soil and water conservation in Loess Hilly and gully region.