网络舆情传播波动性与舆情控制策略——基于GARCH和灰色Verhulst方法

The Volatility of Internet Public Opinion Communication and Public Opinion Control Strategies—Based on GARCH and Grey Verhulst Method

网络空间的不断发展改变了既往“上情下达”的单向沟通渠道,但基于互联网的匿名性等特征,网络舆情事件也时有发生。本研究以政府治理需求为出口,增强网络舆情的控制能力,基于网络舆情事件所具有的时变特征,选取“假疫苗事件”作为研究样本,将网络舆情演化阶段划分为潜伏期、爆发期、反复期和消弭期,利用新浪微指数和百度指数,首先通过建立GARCH模型对网络舆情事件的传播波动性进行剖析,接着建立灰色Verhulst仿真模型描述网络舆情事件整体过程,探索在不同舆情阶段下相应的网络舆情控制手段。研究发现:(1)在网络舆情事件的潜伏期,相关部门应对易引发网民关注的事件予以持续追踪、收集与核实;(2)在网络舆情事件的爆发期,相关部门应不间断地对舆情演化情况进行监控,建立网络新闻发言人制度,回应网民关切热点,并公布事件调查及处理进展;(3)网络舆情事件进入反复期后,应对网络舆情事件的传播渠道、传播态势、敏感词、重点人群等方面予以关注和疏导,并建立网络舆情回应制度,公开事件处理进程,转变被动态势,倾听公众利益诉求的合理表达;(4)网络舆情传播进入消弭期后,政府部门应及时反思,提高危机处置能力和应急响应能力,总结经验,并及时公开事件最终处理结果。

Although the continuous development of cyberspace has changed the previous one-way communication between the upper and lower levels,the anonymity feature of the Internet and other characteristics,network public opinion events occur from time to time.Based on the time-varying characteristics of Internet public opinion events,this study takes the government governance demand as the export,enhances the control ability of Internet public opinion,selects“fake vaccine events”as the research sample,and divides the evolution stages of Internet public opinion into incubation period,outbreak period,recurrence period and elimination period.First,by using Sina micro index and Baidu Index,it analyzes the propagation volatility of Internet public opinion events by establishing GARCH model,and then the grey Verhulst simulation model is established to describe the overall process of network public opinion events,and the corresponding control means of network public opinion in different public opinion stages are explored.This study holds that:(1)during the incubation period of Internet public opinion events,relevant government departments should continuously track,collect and verify the events that are likely to attract the attention of Internet users;(2)during the outbreak,relevant departments should continuously monitor the evolution of public opinion 24 hours a day,establish an Internet news spokesperson system to respond to the hot spots concerned by Internet users,and disclose the investigation and handling progress;(3)upon such events entering the recurrence period,attention should be paid to and guidance should be given to the communication channel,communication situation,sensitive words,key groups,etc.and an Internet public opinion response system should be established to disclose the event handling process,passive situation to be changed,reasonable expression of public demands to be attended to;(4)when elimination period comes,the government departments should reflect in time,improve the crisis handling ability and emergency response ability,summarize the event handling experience,and timely disclose the final handling results of the event.