中国主要城市群的人口分布格局特征、问题及政策思考

The Characteristics,Problems and Policy Considerations of Population Distribution Pattern in Major Urban Agglomerations in China

城市群不仅是吸纳人口的主要地区,也是支撑全国经济高质量发展,促进区域协调,参与国际竞争合作的重要平台。本文采用描述统计、空间基尼系数、规模-位序法则等方法对我国19个主要城市群的人口分布格局进行分析。从19个城市群人口的总体分布格局及动态变化来看,我国不同城市群人口规模差异显著,空间分布很不均衡。大多数城市群人口规模持续增长,个别城市群人口呈减少趋势。从人口分布特征来看,城市群内部的人口空间分布不均匀且差异较大,大多数城市群呈现人口向规模位序靠前的大城市集中分布的格局。近10年以来我国城市群人口规模位序分布集中化趋势出现多极化发展,但以持续集中化分布为主。据此提出以下政策启示:针对城市群人口规模和分布的整体差异特点,要有重点地对中西部城市群进行政策倾斜和支持,避免一刀切;在国家层面上要采取分类、分区和分级管理与建设,针对各城市群的特点和发展阶段进行分类施策;针对城市群人口发展阶段和国家城市群建设要求,要注意防范个别城市群人口的减少和萎缩;对于大多数城市群内部人口分布过于集聚的状况,要注重加强城市之间的人口有序和协调发展。

Urban agglomerations are not only the main areas to absorb population,but also the platform to lend the high-quality development of China’s urbanization in the future,support the national economic growth,promote coordinated regional development,and participate in international competition and cooperation.The population distribution pattern of 19 major urban agglomerations in China was analyzed by descriptive statistics,spatial Gini coefficients,and scale-bit order methods.The study found that from the overall distribution pattern and dynamic changes of the population in 19 urban agglomerations,the population size of different urban agglomerations in China varies greatly,and the spatial distribution is very uneven.The population size of most urban agglomerations continues to grow,and the population of individual urban agglomerations shows a decreasing trend.From the perspective of the characteristics of population distribution within urban agglomerations in China,the spatial distribution of population within urban agglomerations is generally uneven and varies greatly,and most urban agglomerations present a pattern of concentrated distribution of population to large cities with high scale order.In particular,in the past 10 years,the trend of centralized distribution of population size in urban agglomerations in China has shown multi-polar development,but it is mainly based on continuous centralized distribution.According to the analysis,the following policy implications are proposed:In view of the overall differences in the population size and distribution of urban agglomerations,it is necessary to focus on the inclination and support of urban agglomerations in the central and western regions,and avoid one-size-fits-all.At the national level,it is necessary to adopt classification,zoning and hierarchical management and construction,and classify and implement policies according to the characteristics and development stages of each urban agglomeration;In view of the population development stage of urban agglomerations and the requirements of national urban agglomeration construction,attention should be paid to preventing the reduction and shrinkage of the population of individual urban agglomerations;For the situation that the population distribution within most urban agglomerations is too concentrated,attention should be paid to strengthening the orderly and coordinated development of population among cities within urban agglomerations.