21世纪以来欧洲生育率反弹成因分析及其对中国的启示

Analysis on the Causes of Fertility Rebound in Europe since the 21st Century and Its Enlightenment to China

21世纪以来欧洲生育率在经历了持续低迷后开始出现反弹。本文基于西方“第二次人口转变”理论和“低生育率陷阱”假说,从理论层面和现实层面对欧洲生育率反弹的成因进行剖析。研究发现国际人口迁移、文化嬗变作用下的个人主义思潮、宗教弱化、非婚生育观等是欧洲生育率反弹的重要影响因素。欧洲国家多年来通过现金补贴、税收减免以及完善公共服务等政策强制降低了“低生育率陷阱”的自我强化机制,阻止了生育率的持续下滑。由于欧洲各国的文化传统、社会结构、经济发展等存在差异,所以在制定促进生育率反弹的政策时具有不同的思路和侧重点。文章通过数据分析总结欧洲各国总和生育率反弹的方式和程度,并对欧洲典型国家的生育支持政策的效果进行简单评估。研究发现以减轻女性照顾家庭的责任,保障女性在职场的权益为出发点的“去家庭化”政策比主张传统的家庭分工,女性照顾家庭的“再家庭化”政策更为有效。而兼顾“去家庭化”与“再家庭化”政策的国家生育率反弹最为明显。

Since the 21st century,the fertility rate in Europe has rebounded after the previous continuous downturn.The systematic analysis and summary of the causes behind this phenomenon is of great significance to the urgent population problem in China at this stage.Based on the main western demographic theories“the second demographic transition theory”and“low fertility trap”hypothesis,this paper analyzes the causes of fertility rebound in Europe from the theoretical and practical levels.The study found that the international population migration,the individualism trend of thought under the influence of cultural evolution,the weakening of religion,the view of illegitimate fertility and so on are important factors affecting the rebound of fertility in Europe.The study found that over the years,European countries have forcibly reduced the self reinforcing mechanism of the“low fertility trap”through policies such as cash subsidies,tax relief and the improvement of public services,which has hindered the continuous decline of fertility.Due to differences in cultural traditions,social structures and economic development among European countries,countries have different ideas and priorities in formulating policies to promote fertility rebound.Through data analysis,this paper summarizes the rebound of total fertility rate in European countries,and makes a simple assessment of the effect of fertility support policies in typical European countries.The study found that the De-familialization policy,which aims at reducing women’s responsibility to take care of their families and paying attention to protecting women’s position in the workplace,is more effective than the Re-familialization policy,which advocates the traditional family division of labor and women taking care of their families.The fertility rebound is most obvious in countries that have both De-familialization and Re-familialization policies.