积极生育政策对我国男性婚姻挤压影响的趋势分析

Impact of the Positive Fertility Policy on the Male Marriage Squeeze Trend in China

在性别失衡与人口老龄化的双重影响下,我国男性婚姻挤压不断加剧。文章基于第七次全国人口普查数据,运用单区域离散型未婚人口发展方程,充分考虑积极生育政策对出生人口性别结构和年龄结构的不同影响,设置不同的方案预测2021-2100年全国未婚人口年龄性别结构数据,利用未婚男性过剩规模、潜在初婚比、男性终身未婚规模和比例测度我国未婚男性婚姻挤压及其后果的变动趋势,得到如下结论:第一,2020-2100年婚龄未婚男性婚姻挤压先加剧后减缓,婚龄未婚男性过剩规模将在2040年左右达到峰值4913万人。潜在初婚比将在2052年左右达到峰值183.9。第二,1970-2050年出生队列男性终身未婚规模和比例呈现先上升后下降的变动趋势,2020年左右出生队列达到峰值,“10后”男性将面临最为严重的男性婚姻挤压。第三,积极生育政策有利于从性别结构和年龄结构两个方面缓解未来男性婚姻挤压。出生性别比越快恢复到正常水平则未来男性婚姻挤压程度越低;总和生育率越高则未来男性婚姻挤压程度越低。第四,我国男性婚姻挤压以往被高估。根据最新的第七次全国普查数据,采用逆存活法测算发现将近一半的“失踪”女性被找回。

Under the influence of gender imbalance and aging population,the male marriage squeeze in China is intensifying.Based on the latest data of the Seventh National Population Census,this paper uses the single region discrete development equation of never-married population,fully considers the differ⁃ent effects of the positive birth policy on the gender structure and age structure of the birth population,sets up different prediction schemes,and predicts the data of the age and gender structure of the never-married population from 2021 to 2100.Based on the surplus scale of never-married men,the ratio of potential first marriage,and the scale and proportion of male lifelong unmarried,this paper measures the changing trend of never-married male marriage squeeze and its consequences in China,and analyzes the causes,and draws the following conclusions.First,the marriage squeeze of never-married men of marriageable age intensifies first and then slows down during 2020-2100.The surplus of never-married men of marriageable age will peak at 49.13 million around 2040.The potential first marriage ratio will peak at 183.9 around 2052.Sec⁃ond,cohort analysis shows that the scale and proportion of male never-married males in the birth cohort from 1970 to 2050 show a changing trend of first increasing and then decreasing,and the birth cohort reaches its peak around 2020,and the“Post-2010”males will face the most serious male marriage squeeze.Third,the positive birth policy is beneficial to alleviate the future male marriage squeeze from two aspects of gender structure and age structure.The sex ratio at birth returns to the normal level faster and the future male marriage squeeze is lower.The higher the TFR,the lower the future male marriage squeeze.Fourth,China’s male marriage squeeze has been overrated before.According to the latest seventh national census,which uses reverse survival methods,nearly half of the“Missing”women were found.