基于熵值法的碳配额优化电量灰色预测模型

Grey Prediction Model of Optimal Electricity Quantity of Carbon Quota Based on Entropy Method

基于灰色预测理论基础,针对电量预测与碳减排目标设定难以结合的问题,从减排责任、减排能力与减排潜力三个方向入手,提出一种基于熵值法的碳配额模型,并且通过灰色预测的方法解决历史数据少的问题从而实现电量预测,最后通过综合考量碳配额在电力预测中的影响程度,提出了一种基于碳配额的优化灰色预测模型,并结合实例进行分析,通过后验差检验保证了模型的准确性,结果表明引入碳配额分配方式后的灰色模型更具有现实意义,有助于指导地区制定能源政策,并在兼顾地区历史发展水平与GDP水平的同时完善碳配额制度。

Based on the gray prediction theory,aiming at the problem that it is difficult to combine electricity prediction with carbon emission reduction target setting,a carbon quota model based on entropy method was put forward,starting from three directions:emission reduction responsibility,emission reduction capacity and emission reduction potential,and the problem of lack of historical data was solved through the gray prediction method so as to achieve electricity prediction,and finally by comprehensively considering the influence of carbon quota in power forecasting,an optimized gray prediction model based on carbon quota was obtained,and through analyzing with an example,and the accuracy of the model was ensured through posterior error test.The results show that the gray model after introducing carbon quota allocation mode is of more practical significance,which is helpful to guide the formulation of regional energy policy,and improve the carbon quota system while taking into account the regional historical development level and GDP level.