基于模糊故障树的建筑施工高处坠落全面风险评估

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Building Construction Falling from Height Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

为准确进行建筑施工高处坠落全面风险评估,解决事故致因因素存在模糊性与不确定性的问题,提出了一种基于模糊集合理论的故障树分析法。首先,应用模糊故障树模型从定性和定量角度识别出关键致因要素,得出失效概率;其次,运用风险分析矩阵对风险后果进行评估;最后,对工程实例进行风险评估。研究结果表明,基于模糊集合理论的故障树分析法解决了概率的不精确性和工程的不精确性,结合高处坠落失效可能性与后果严重性对风险进行的全面评估,为制定高处坠落事故防范措施和安全管理提供了理论参考,在可靠性工程中有方便高效的应用价值。

In order to accurately evaluate the overall risk of falling from height in building construction and solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of accident causing factors,a fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory was proposed.First,the fuzzy fault tree model was used to identify the key causative elements from qualitative and quantitative perspectives,and the failure probability is obtained.Then,the risk analysis matrix was used to evaluate the risk consequences.Finally,the method was applied to an example for verification.The research results show that the fault tree analysis method based on the fuzzy set theory solves the inaccuracy of probability and the inaccuracy of engineering.The comprehensive risk assessment combined with the failure possibility and consequence severity of falling from height provides a theoretical reference for the formulation of preventive measures.And it has convenient and efficient application value in reliability engineering.