居民杠杆率快速增长的影响因素研究--基于天津等12个城市的面板数据

Study on the Influencing Factors of the Rapid Growth of Resident Leverage Ratio--Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Tianjin and Other 12 Cities

本文从全国居民杠杆率排名前20的主要城市中,经过分层随机抽样,选取天津、重庆、郑州、杭州、广州、成都、贵阳、上海、宁波、厦门、昆明和兰州作为研究样本,从房产价格、住宅开发投资、经济发展、金融发展、居民收入消费水平和常住人口增长等六个方面,对上述12个城市的居民杠杆率进行测算,并使用面板数据模型对其居民杠杆率快速上升的原因进行实证研究。实证结果表明,房地产(住宅)价格的快速上涨和房地产(住宅)开发投资完成额的增长均对居民杠杆率的上升有显著的正向影响;金融业发展和宏观经济发展也对居民杠杆率有显著的影响;居民消费倾向对居民杠杆率存在不稳健的挤出效应。

In this paper,12 cities including Tianjin,Chongqing,Zhengzhou,Hangzhou,Guangzhou,Chengdu,Guiyang,Shanghai,Ningbo,Xiamen,Kunming and Lanzhou are selected as research samples by stratified random sampling from the top 20 major cities in China’s resident leverage ratio.This paper calculates the resident leverage ratio of the above 12 cities from six aspects,including real estate price,residential development and investment,economic development,financial development,resident income and consumption level,and resident population growth,and makes an empirical analysis of the reasons for the rapid increase of resident leverage ratio using panel data model.The empirical results show that the rapid rise of real estate(residential)price and the growth of investment completion of real estate(residential)development have a significant positive impact on the increase of resident leverage ratio,financial industry development and macroeconomic development also have a significant impact on household leverage ratio,inhabitant consumption tendency has an unsteady crowding out effect on inhabitant leverage ratio.