中国经济周期波动的行业叠加及其与政策周期的时频关联

The Industry Superposition of Business Cycle and Its Time-Frequency Correlation with Policy Cycle in China

综合运用连续小波变换与频域连通性等方法,探究中国经济周期波动特征和各个行业领域不同频率波动成分的叠加机理,检验不同频域内经济周期与政策周期的交互影响动态。研究表明,经济周期由不同频率波动成分叠加谐振而成,其中4年左右的主周期波动主要由工业、农业、建筑业、金融业与房地产业复合驱动形成,在全球金融危机及新冠肺炎疫情时期,2年左右的短周期波动相对凸显且主要由批发零售业、住宿餐饮业与交通运输业等驱动形成;财政政策周期(货币政策周期)主要在高频(低频)波动成分上对经济周期产生短期(长期)影响效应,而经济周期对经济政策周期的溢出影响则均集中于低频波动成分。这些研究为新时期协调运用各类宏观调控政策实施定向精准调控,进一步完善宏观调控跨周期设计与调节机制,从行业叠加和时频关联视角提供了有益的经验依据和政策启示。

This paper comprehensively uses continuous wavelet transform and frequency domain connectedness to explore the fluctuation characteristics of business cycle and the superposition mechanism of different frequency fluctuation components in various industries, and employ the dynamic interaction between business cycle and policy cycle under different frequency domains. The results show that: the business cycle is superimposed by fluctuation components of different frequencies, among which the main cycle fluctuation of about 4 years is driven by the combination of industry, agriculture, construction, finance and real estate. During the global financial crisis and COVID-19 outbreak, the short cycle fluctuation of about 2 years is relatively prominent and mainly comes from wholesale and retail industry, accommodation catering industry and transportation industry. The fiscal policy cycle(monetary policy cycle) mainly produces short-term(long-term) effects on the business cycle in the high-frequency(low-frequency) fluctuation components, while the spillover effects of the business cycle on the economic policy cycle are concentrated in the low-frequency fluctuation components. These studies provide useful empirical basis and policy inspiration to implement targeted and precise regulation with the coordinated use of various macro-control policies in the new era, and further improve the cross-cycle design and regulation mechanism of macro-control from the perspective of industry superposition and time-frequency correlation.