南亚小国的战略对冲与中国的南亚地区政策选择

Strategic Hedging of Smaller South Asian States and China’s Regional Policy Choices towards South Asia

在中国推进高质量共建“一带一路”以及美日印澳借“印太”框架制衡中国的大背景下,南亚地区在中国周边战略中的重要性凸显。中国的南亚地区政策受到中印关系调整及小国战略对冲等因素的影响和挑战。本文以尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国在中印之间的战略对冲为案例,分析三国面对中印竞争的心态以及进行战略对冲过程中的差异性选择。本文认为,威胁认知和经济预期是影响小国战略对冲的主要自变量,而地区结构、大国竞争的性质和强度、小国相对能力的差异决定了小国的威胁认知和经济预期。在双向对冲的语境下,小国战略对冲的策略组合主要有四种,分别为双向合作、双向制衡、偏向型合作与偏向型制衡。由于南亚小国对中印两国的威胁认知和经济预期不同,陆锁国尼泊尔倾向于“偏向型合作或制衡”,海岛国家斯里兰卡经历了从“偏向型制衡”到“双向合作”的转变,未来有进行“双向制衡”的趋势,陆海复合型的孟加拉国在中印之间奉行较为稳定的“双向合作”策略。对此,中国应在实践中进一步明晰南亚政策选择,在协调中印巴关系的同时,强化与南亚小国的多领域合作,并超越美印排他性“小圈子”、“小集团”的冲突与竞争逻辑,通过消极安全配置谋求积极经济利益,推动与南亚国家的制度化合作进程。

As China promotes high-quality BRI cooperation,and the U.S.,Japan,India and Australia collaborate under the "Indo-Pacific" framework,the strategic importance of South Asia in China’s neighborhood has become prominent.China’s South Asia regional policy has been influenced by SinoIndian relations as well as the strategic hedging of smaller states in the region.This paper studies the strategic hedging of Nepal,Sri Lanka and Bangladesh,and analyzes the mentality of the three states and their differential choices of strategic hedging between China and India.This paper argues that threat perceptions and economic expectations are the main independent variables that affect the strategic hedging of smaller states,while regional structure,power competition,and the relative capabilities of smaller states are remote causes.In the context of the two-way hedging,there are four main strategic combinations,namely two-way cooperation,two-way balances,biased cooperation and biased balances.As smaller South Asian states have different threat perceptions and economic expectations of China and India,they have adopted different hedging strategies.Landlocked Nepal tends to conduct "biased cooperation or balances".While Sri Lanka,as an island country,has changed its strategy from "biased balances" to "two-way cooperation",it is likely to practice "two-way balances" in the future.Bangladesh,a land-sea complex country,has adopted a relatively stable "two-way cooperation" strategy toward China and India.Hence,China should further clarify its South Asian policy choices in practice.While coordinating China-India-Pakistan relations,China should strengthen multi-field cooperation with smaller South Asian states.Going beyond the conflict and competition logic of the exclusive "small circles" and "small groups" promoted by the U.S.and India,China should advance institutionalized cooperation with South Asian countries through " passive" security collaboration and "active" economic cooperation.