物价房价、预期与居民幸福感

General Prices and Home Prices,Expectations of Them,and Residents’Sense of Happiness

物价和房价是影响居民幸福感的重要潜在因素,尽管近年来在社会舆论和政策讨论中备受关注,但文献中尚缺乏足够的实证研究作为支撑。本文运用微观住户调查数据探究一般物价和房价及其预期对居民幸福感的影响,为将价格因素纳入幸福经济学分析提供了微观实证基础。研究发现:在样本期内,一般物价对我国居民幸福感的影响不显著,而高房价对居民幸福感具有显著负向影响;除真实价格水平外,高一般物价预期和高房价预期均对居民幸福感产生显著的负向影响;这些影响在住房拥有情况、家庭结构、工作稳定度、收入水平等维度上呈现异质性;高一般物价预期主要通过“悲观预期效应”对幸福感产生影响,而高房价预期则通过“挤占效应”、“财富效应”和“悲观预期效应”三种途径共同对幸福感产生影响。

General prices and home prices are important potential factors affecting residents’sense of happiness.Although they have attracted much attention from the public and policy makers in recent years,there is still a lack of empirical research in literature.This paper uses micro household survey data to explore the impact of general prices and home prices as well as expectations of them on residents’sense of happiness,providing micro empirical evidence for incorporating price factors into the analysis of economics of happiness.It is found that general prices have no significant impact on Chinese residents’sense of happiness in the sample period,while high home prices have significant negative impact on it.Expectations of both high general prices and high home prices have significant negative impact.The impacts are heterogeneous in the dimensions of home ownership,family structure,job stability,and income level.The expectation of high home prices affects residents’sense of happiness via three channels:the“crowding-out effect,”“wealth effect”and“pessimistic expectation effect,”while the expectation of high general prices only affects residents’happiness through the“pessimistic expectation effect.”