后疫情时期城市轨道交通客流特征与韧性探讨

Assessment and Countermeasures for Urban Rail Transit Resilience Governance in Post-Pandemic Era

在新冠疫情防范常态化的后疫情阶段,城市轨道交通系统频繁受到疫情的影响,提高城市轨道交通系统韧性具有重要意义。本文结合上海市轨道交通疫情及后疫情期间客流量数据,通过使用LSTM模型量化疫情对城市轨道交通系统的影响,验证了城市相关管控策略对轨道系统韧性具有明显影响,提供合理的管控策略对提高城市交通系统韧性具有重要意义。本文结合城市交通韧性理论和交通系统在疫情期间各阶段状态,提出了城市轨道交通韧性治理的相关对策及建议,为疫情防范常态化阶段提高城市轨道交通韧性和精准管控提供参考。

In the normalization stage of the COVID-19 pandemic control, the rail transit system is frequently affected by the epidemic, It is of great significance to improve the resilience of the urban rail transit system,no matter for the public and government. This paper uses the Shanghai rail transit passenger flow data during the epidemic, along with the LSTM, to quantitatively assess the impact of pandemic on urban rail transit. In addition, this analysis also validates that the city-related management and control strategies have a significant impact on the resilience of the rail system, in which it is vital to provide reasonable management and control strategies and governance countermeasures. Based on the theory of urban transportation resilience and the state of the transportation system at various stages during the epidemic, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for urban rail transit resilience management, and also provides a reference for improving urban rail transit resilience and precise control during the normalization stage of the epidemic prevention.