农业部门就业缓冲作用的再认识——来自新冠肺炎疫情前后农村劳动力就业的证据

A Recognition on the Buffer Role of the Agricultural Sector:Evidence from Off-farm Employment of Rural Labor Force During the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎疫情暴发致使全球劳动力市场遭受重创,疫情对农村劳动力就业的影响及其复苏情况是政策制定者和学者关注的焦点。本文基于中国农村发展调查2018年和2020年跨越疫情前后的面板数据,在厘清新冠肺炎疫情对农村劳动力非农就业影响的基础上,系统分析了疫情期间农业部门的就业缓冲作用。研究结果表明,疫情暴发后的一年内,18%的农村劳动力失去了其非农就业岗位;即便是那些保住非农就业岗位的劳动力,其就业时长缩短了5.7%,年工资收入减少了5.3%。农业部门在疫情中发挥了巨大的就业缓冲作用。在疫情中失去非农就业的农村劳动力中,有61.2%返回农业部门。家庭承包耕地面积以及耕地转入行为对劳动力失去非农就业后返回农业部门有显著的正向影响。异质性分析结果表明,疫情期间农业部门的就业缓冲作用具有包容性,对年长、文化程度较低和西部地区农村劳动力的就业缓冲作用更明显。这些结果说明,新时期农业部门依然是农村劳动力的“蓄水池”。

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely damaged the global labor market.Its impact on rural labor employment and the recovery of off-farm employment are the focus of policymakers and scholars in China.Based on the panel data of 2018 and 2020,this article examines the buffer role of the agricultural sector in the new stage of rural development based on the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on off-farm employment of rural labor force.The results show that in the first year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic,18%of rural off-farm labor force lost their jobs,the working hours of those who remained off-farm decreased by 5.7%,and their annual wage income decreased by 5.3%.The agricultural sector has played a huge role in buffering employment during the pandemic.61.2%of rural labor force who lost their off-farm jobs during the pandemic returned to the agricultural sector.Household contracted cultivated land areas and cultivated land transfer behaviors have significant positive impacts on the return of labor to the agricultural sector after their off-farm employment loss.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the employment buffer role of the agricultural sector was inclusive,and the role was more obvious for the elderly,the less educated and the rural labor force in the western region.These results imply that the agricultural sector is still the“reservoir”of rural laborforce in the new era.