中国代际收入流动:城乡差异及其时间趋势

Intergenerational Income Mobility in China:Urban-rural Differences and Their Time Trends

本文利用CHARLS2018和CHIP(1988、1995)的微观数据,采用双样本两阶段最小二乘法(TS2SLS),基于出生于1970-1995年的非迁移城镇子辈、非迁移农村子辈与城乡迁移子辈的代际组合样本,分析了中国代际收入流动性的城乡差异及其时间趋势,并进一步探究了不同城乡含义下中国代际收入流动性城乡差异的结构特征。研究结果显示,第一,从静态总体水平看,中国非迁移农村子辈的代际收入流动性显著低于非迁移城镇子辈,户籍城乡与区域城乡含义下的中国农村代际收入流动性都显著低于城镇,但存在程度差异。第二,从动态时间趋势看,出生于1975年之前的非迁移农村子辈的代际收入流动性高于出生于1975年之前的非迁移城镇子辈,但之后随着子辈出生年份的推移,非迁移农村子辈的代际收入流动性逐渐低于非迁移城镇子辈,并且两者之间的差异总体呈扩大趋势。第三,虽然同是初始户口为农村户口的子辈,但出生于1973年以后的城乡迁移子辈的代际收入流动性高于出生于1973年以后的非迁移农村子辈,并且,随着子辈出生年份的推移,两者的代际收入流动性差异呈现出先增大后缓慢减小而后又缓慢增大的趋势。本文的研究结果表明,虽然中国城乡内部都存在着一定程度的机会不平等问题,但农村的机会不平等程度相对更高,并且城乡之间的这种相对机会不平等差异在1970-1995世代中随世代的推移呈扩大趋势。

This article analyzes the urban-rural differences in China’s intergenerational income mobility and their time trends as well as its structural characteristics under different definitions of urban and rural China with the micro data of CHARLS2018,CHIP1988 and 1995 and the Two-sample Two-stage Least Squares(TS2SLS)method.The samples used in this study are the non-migrant urban children group,non-migrant rural children group,and rural-urban migration children group,who were all born between 1970 and 1995.The results of this study show that,firstly,from the perspective of static overall level,the intergenerational income mobility of China’s non migrant rural children is significantly lower than that of non-migrant urban children.The intergenerational income mobility of China’s rural children under the meaning of registered residence urban and rural areas and regional urban and rural areas is significantly lower than that of cities and towns,but there are differences in degree.Secondly,from the perspective of the dynamic time trend,the intergenerational income mobility of non-migrant rural children born before 1975 is higher than that of non-migrant urban children.However,with the passage of their birth years,the intergenerational income mobility of non-migrant rural children is gradually lower than that of non-migrant urban children,and the difference between the two is generally expanding.Thirdly,although non-migrant rural children and rural-urban migration children were both born with rural Hukou,the intergenerational income mobility of the latter born after 1973 is significantly higher than that of the former.With the passage of their birth years,the intergenerational income mobility difference between the two shows a trend of first increasing,then slowly decreasing,and then slowly increasing.These results imply that although there is a certain degree of opportunity inequality in both urban and rural areas in China,the degree of opportunity inequality in rural areas is relatively higher,and this relative opportunity inequality between urban and rural areas tends to expand with the passage of generations from 1970 to 1995.