长江三峡生态经济走廊地区水资源承载力的综合评价及时空演变研究

Comprehensive Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Three Gorges Ecological and Economy Corridor of Yangtze River

长江三峡生态经济走廊地区作为我国最大的战略性淡水资源库和长江上游重要生态屏障,面临着水资源利用不协调、水资源供需矛盾失衡等危机。水资源承载力是衡量一个地区可持续发展的重要指标,研究长江三峡生态经济走廊水资源承载力动态变化特征,对促进走廊地区水源涵养和生态文明建设具有积极意义。运用TOPSIS和熵权法综合评价方法,基于系统论和供需理论构建水资源承载力综合评价指标体系,分析长江三峡生态经济走廊各区县2015~2019年的水资源承载力动态变化及区域差异。研究结果发现:样本考察期间,长江三峡生态经济走廊各区县水资源承载力总体呈波浪式上升趋势,承载力水平基本维持在低级水平,其中生态子系统和社会经济子系统的贡献力度最大,中央和地方政府对走廊地区的水源涵养保护起到良好的带头引领作用,各区县水资源供需矛盾有所缓和但仍较为紧张。据此,本文提出发挥宏观调控作用,进一步推进区域内产业结构绿色升级、水资源高效利用和高质治理等政策建议。

As the largest strategic freshwater resource bank and an important ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Three Gorges Reservoir faces dire challenges in terms of uncoordinated water resources utilization and supple-and-demand imbalance of water resources. Water resources carrying capacity is an important index of measuring the sustainable development in a region. Studying the features of dynamic water resources carrying capacity in the Three Gorges Ecological and Economy Corridor of the Yangtze River can go a long way towards promoting water conservation and ecological civilization construction across the reservoir area. Adopting entropy weight method and the TOPSIS method, and based on the system theory and supply-and-demand theory, the paper conducts an analysis of the dynamic changes and regional differences of water resources carrying capacity in 11 districts and counties between 2015 and 2019. The results find that the water resources carrying capacity in the 11 districts and counties in the Three Gorges Ecological and Economy Corridor of the Yangtze River on the whole presented an upward trend, and the carrying capacity basically maintained at a low level, with the ecological subsystem and the social economic subsystem making the biggest contribution. The central and local governments play a leading role in the conservation and protection of water resources in the reservoir area. And the imbalance of supply and demand of water resources in each district has been slightly eased. As such, the paper proposes that the macro management should continue to be brought into full play to further enhance the green upgrading of the industrial structure, water resources utilization and quality government in the reservoir area.