长江经济带生态环境承载状态分析及其影响因素研究

Analysis on Carrying State of Ecological Environment of Yangtze River Economic Belt and Its Influencing Factors

科学评价生态环境承载力是制定合理生态保护措施的理论前提,对推进生态文明建设具有重要意义,但是评价过程中存在生态环境承载力阈值和人类活动对生态环境的压力值难以量化等问题。基于2009~2017年的长江经济带生态数据,借鉴“生态环境质量指数动态评价法”,将生态环境承载力的量化测值转化为生态环境承载力运行状态研究,以此达到评价长江经济带生态环境承载力的目的。结果表明:(1)评价期内,长江经济带生态环境质量呈上升走势,生态环境总体处于可承载状态;11个省市中,上海、浙江、湖北、湖南、重庆、四川、云南、贵州等省市处于可承载状态,其中贵州生态环境质量指数提升最大,达86.844;江苏、江西两个省份处于超载状态,安徽省处于基本可承载状态。(2)人均GDP、第三产业、科技投入占GDP比重、环境治理投资额、绿地面积与长江经济带生态环境质量指数呈同增同减趋势且影响程度较大,分别为7.33、6.92、8.28、6.71、7.21。(3)人口自然增长率、城镇化水平、人口密度、单位GDP能耗、单位GDP电耗与长江经济带生态环境质量指数成负相关,其中单元GDP能耗、电耗对环境质量负面影响程度最大,分别为6.57、6.26。

Scientific evaluation of the carrying capacity of the ecological environment was theoretical prerequisite for formulating reasonable ecological protection measures. It was of great significance to the promotion of ecological civilization construction. However, there were difficult to quantify threshold value of ecological carrying capacity and the pressure value of human activities on ecological environment. So this article was based on ecological data from 2009 to 2017 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Learned lessons from “Dynamic Evaluation Method of Ecological Environment Quality Index”. It was transformed the quantitative measurement value of the ecological environment carrying capacity into the study of the ecological environment carrying capacity operation status. To achieve the purpose of evaluating the carrying capacity of the ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The results showed that:(1) During the evaluation period, the quality of the ecological environment in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is on the rise, The ecological environment is generally in bearable state and Among the 11 provinces and cities, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou are in the load-bearing state, What’s more, the Guizhou has the largest improvement in Eco-environmental quality index, reaching 86.844. Jiangsuand Jiangxi provinces are in overload condition, while Anhui province is in the basic state of carrying capacity.(2) Per capital GDP, tertiary industry, science and technology investment accounted for the proportion of GDP, environmental governance investment, green area, and the ecological environment quality index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased and decreased at the same time, and the impact was large, respectively 7.33, 6.92, 8.28, 6.71, 7.21.(3) The natural population growth rate, urbanization level, population density, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and power consumption per unit of GDP are negatively correlated with the Eco-environmental quality index of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. Among them, energy consumption per unit of GDP and power consumption have the greatest negative impact on environmental quality. It is 6.57 and 6.26.