电力系统关键技术进步与低碳转型的协同优化

Collaborative Optimization of Key Technology Progress and Low-carbon Transition of Power Systems

技术的进步对于电力系统低碳转型具有重要的支撑作用,同时,技术的发展也应以实现系统低碳转型为目标,特别是在长期时间尺度上,二者相互影响更加显著。中国提出在2060年前实现全社会碳中和目标,电力系统将逐渐实现低碳甚至零碳排放。清洁能源发电、特高压输电、储能等关键技术的发展水平,成为电力系统转型是否经济可行的重要因素。电力系统关键技术也要以实现碳中和为目标加快发展。为量化评估电力系统关键技术进步与低碳转型经济可行性的耦合与匹配关系,提出了二者协同优化的框架和方法。将技术成熟度和经济性与电力系统扩展规划模型相结合,并以中国2060年远期电力规划为案例,研究不同技术发展场景下电力系统清洁低碳转型的经济可行性,分析了不同技术对全系统综合单位电量成本下降的贡献。

The technology progress plays an important role in supporting the low-carbon transition of power systems. At the same time, the development of technology should also aim at the realization of the low-carbon transition of power systems. Especially in the long-term time scale, the mutual interaction between them is more significant. China promises to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality of the whole society before 2060, and the power system will gradually achieve low-carbon or even zero-carbon emissions.The development level of key technologies such as clean energy power generation, ultra-high voltage(UHV) power transmission and energy storage has become an important factor in the economic feasibility of power system transition, and the development of the key technologies should also be accelerated with the goal of carbon neutrality. In order to quantitatively evaluate the coupling and matching relationship between the key technology progress and the economic feasibility of the low-carbon transition of power systems, a framework and a method of collaborative optimization of them are proposed. It combines the technology maturity and economy with the power system expansion planning model, and takes the 2060 long-term power planning of China as a case to study the economic feasibility of the clean low-carbon transition for the power system in different technology development scenarios, and the contribution of different technologies to the reduction of the overall unit electricity cost of the whole system is analyzed.