海南芒果生长期极端高低温度变化特征分析

Temperature Variation in Mango Growing Season in Hainan

基于海南岛18个国家气象观测站1966—2019年的观测数据,依据国家标准和气象行业标准,利用线性趋势分析等方法分析了5个表征芒果低温、高温灾害指标的时间变化特征,基于ArcGIS分析了各指标的空间分布特征。结果表明,在时间变化上,芒果生长期极端最高气温、极端最低气温分别以0.23℃/10年、0.66℃/10年的速率呈上升趋势,低温阴雨寡照频次以0.22次/10年的速率呈下降趋势,高温日数以1.63d/10年的速率呈上升趋势,但未通过显著性检验,冷空气频次无明显的增多或减少趋势。在空间分布上,芒果生长期极端最低气温由沿海向中部逐渐减小,冷空气影响频次最大值由北向南递减,海南岛西南部的大部分地区未出现过低温阴雨寡照过程,其余地区其频次由沿海向中部逐渐增加,极端最高气温和高温日数由北向南逐渐减小。研究结果可为芒果种植的防灾减灾提供科学参考。

Based on observation data of 18 national meteorological stations in Hainan from 1966 to 2019,according to the national standard and meteorological industry standard, the time variation characteristics of 5indexes representing mango disasters of low temperature and high temperature were analyzed by using linear trend analysis, and the spatial distribution characteristics of each index were analyzed based on ArcGIS technology. The results showed that, in terms of time variation, the extreme maximum and the extreme minimum temperature of mango growing season showed an increasing trend at the rates of 0.23℃ every ten years, 0.66℃ every ten years,respectively;the frequency of low temperature and rain showed a decreasing trend at the rates of 0.22 times every ten years;the number of high temperature day increased at the rates of 1.63d every ten years. However, it did not pass the significance test, and the frequency of cold air did not increase or decrease obviously. In terms of spatial distribution,the extreme minimum temperature in mango growing season decreased gradually from the coast to the central region;the maximum influence frequency of cold air decreased from north to south;most areas in the southwest of Hainan did not experience the process of low temperature overcast rainfall;the frequency increased gradually from the coast to the middle in the other areas;the number of the extreme maximum temperature and high temperature days gradually decreased from north to south. The results could provide a scientific reference for disaster prevention and reduction of mango planting.