民航典型安保突发事件统计分析与防控策略

Statistical Analysis and Prevention and Control Strategies of Typical Emergency in Civil Aviation Safety&Security

为提升民航运营安全保障能力,本研究以1931-2019年209起劫机、炸机重点案件为样本,运用灰色关联法进行相关性分析,并提出劫机、炸机事件动态风险防控的4点策略。分析结果显示:飞机飞行的各阶段中乘客伤亡相关度排序前三名为巡航、停泊和着陆;劫机动机造成恶劣影响的前三名为索要金钱、释放犯人和其他动机;劫机人数与乘客伤亡相关度排序前三名为2、4及1人。针对劫机、炸机事件提出全流程风险监控预警、研发和应用新的技术等风险防范措施。

In order to improve the ability to assure the safety&security of the civil aviation operation,in this paper,209 key cases relating to hijacking and bombing from 1931 to 2019 were taken as examples,the gray relational method was used to analyze their relation,and four strategies for preventing and controlling the dynamic risk of hijacking and bombing incidents were proposed.The results show that the top 3 in the passenger casualty relevancy during every phase of aircraft flight are cruising,berthing and landing;that the top3 in the hijacking motive resulted in badly influence are demanding money,releasing prisoners and other motive;and that the top 3 in the number of hijackings with the highest relevancy to the passenger casualty are 2 persons,4 persons and 1 person.Risk prevention and control measures for hijacking and bombing incidents were put forward from aspects such as the total process risk monitoring and early warning and developing and applying new technologies.