制造业集聚促进抑或阻碍绿色发展绩效?——来自长江经济带的证据

Does Manufacturing Agglomeration Promote or Hinder Green Development Performance? Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

文章从“水平—效率—福利”维度评估绿色发展绩效,并从理论与实证两方面检验制造业集聚对绿色发展绩效的影响与作用机制。研究发现:制造业集聚与绿色发展绩效存在显著的倒“U”型关系,在系列稳健性检验后结论仍然稳健。此外,绿色发展绩效在时间维度上表现出典型的“滚雪球”效应,在空间上表现出明显的溢出效应。异质性分析表明,制造业集聚对绿色发展绩效的影响在集聚模式、地区差异和发展阶段异质性约束下表现出显著的结构性差异。机制检验发现,制造业集聚会通过劳动力蓄水池效应、中间投入共享效应和知识溢出效应显著影响绿色发展绩效。当三大作用机制均处于低水平门槛区间时,制造业集聚有利于提高绿色发展绩效,一旦越过门槛值,其效果由促进作用转变为抑制性影响。

The study measures the current status of green development performance from the dimension of "levelefficiency-welfare",and investigates the impact and mechanism of manufacturing agglomeration on green development performance from the theoretical and empirical aspects.The results suggest it has a significant inverted "U-shaped" relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and green development performance,the conclusion is still robust after the robustness tests.Green development performance shows a typical "snowball" effect in time,and an obvious spillover effect in space.According to the heterogeneity analysis,the influence of manufacturing agglomeration on green development performance shows significant structural differences under the constraints of agglomeration mode,regional difference,and development stage.The results of the mechanism analysis show that manufacturing agglomeration can significantly influence green development performance through labor pool effect,intermediate input sharing effect and knowledge spillover effect.When the values of the three mechanisms are all lower than the threshold values,manufacturing agglomeration is conducive to improving green development performance.However,once the threshold values are crossed,the influence will change from promoting to inhibiting.