美国产业补贴对中国非出口企业生产率的影响

The Effects of U.S.Industrial Subsidies on the Productivity of Chinese Non-exporters

通过梳理2009—2020年美国所采取的产业补贴措施,本文发现,美国补贴的产业与中国向其出口的产品存在高契合度,这表明美国产业补贴对中国出口产品构成普遍的负向冲击。通过实证研究,本文探讨了美国产业补贴对中国非出口企业生产率的影响,并对其背后的作用机制进行了深入研究,得到的主要结论是:首先,美国产业补贴导致中国非出口企业的劳动生产率和全要素生产率均下降。其次,美国产业补贴引发中国出口企业出口转内销行为从而恶化国内市场竞争环境,这是美国产业补贴致使中国非出口企业生产率下降的主要机制。最后,异质性分析表明,美国产业补贴对中国非国有企业、距离技术前沿较远的企业以及处于低技术行业的企业负面冲击较大,并且美国产业补贴不利于中国非出口企业的资本深化。本文有关外循环条件变化对内循环为主企业即中国非出口企业的作用及其机制的研究,为中国“以国内循环为主,国内国际双循环相互促进”格局的构建提供了一定的微观基础和证据。

The negative international spillover effects caused by non-tariff restrictive trade barriers are becoming the source of increasing trade tensions and conflicts among countries.Because of the characteristics of concealment and lack of effective international institutional constraints,subsidy measures are increasingly widely used in the world as trade protection measures.In recent years,the number of trade disputes related to subsidies has increased sharply.Subsidies are becoming the main source of trade disputes,and their role is increasingly strengthened.According to Global Trade Alert(GTA) data,subsidies are the world’s most frequent trade intervention measures since 2009,and the United States has become the largest user of industrial subsidies outside the European Union.With the intensification of the new round of industrial competition in various countries,it can be predicted that the use intensity of industrial subsidies in various countries will continue to increase,becoming the most disruptive trade protection measures to trade liberalization,and will also carry a stronger function of industrial policy.Therefore,the international economic and trade impact of industrial subsidies is worth a thorough and systematic study.This paper finds that the industries subsidized by the United States are highly matched with the products China exported to U.S.by descriptive statistics using the data from 2009-2020,indicating that U.S.industrial subsidies have a general negative impact on China’s export products.This paper reveals the significant negative impact of U.S.industrial subsidies on the productivity of Chinese non-exporters and the mechanism behind it is discussed.The main conclusions are as follows:First,U.S.industrial subsidies lead to the decline of labor productivity and total factor productivity of Chinese non-exporters.Second,U.S.industrial subsidies cause Chinese exporters to shift their exports to domestic market,which then squeeze domestic market and worsen the competitive environment in China.On the one hand,the compression of market share will reduce enterprises’ scale economy;on the other hand,it will lead to the relative excess production capacity of enterprises,which will lead to the decline of productivity of non-exporters.Heterogeneity analysis shows that U.S.industrial subsidies have a greater negative impact on non-state-owned enterprises,low-technology enterprises,enterprises in low technology industries and are harmful to the capital deepening of firms.In addition,this paper finds that there is no significant difference in productivity between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.The traditional view is that state-owned enterprises have the problems of fuzzy property rights,absence of owners and soft budget constraints,so the economic efficiency and productivity of state-owned enterprises are low.However,with the deepening of property rights reform,the efficiency of state-owned enterprises is constantly improving,not necessarily lower than that of non-state-owned enterprises.The empirical results of this paper confirm to some extent that the reform of state-owned enterprises in recent years is fruitful.The marginal contribution of this paper is twofold.First,to our best knowledge,this is the first paper to discuss the impact of U.S.industrial subsidies on China’s domestic industries,which is a useful supplement to the research on international spillover effects of industrial subsidies.Second,this paper reveals the mechanism behind the international spillover effects of U.S.industrial subsidies,that is,they cause exporters to turn to domestic market and thus deteriorate the domestic market competition environment.The research on the effect and mechanism of the change of external circulation conditions on the main enterprises of internal circulation,that is,China’s non-exporters,provides a certain micro foundation and evidence for the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement in China.